Fed Changes Job Numbers

Here we go again.

I once remember that it took 250,000 jobs added per month to remain level for unemployment. Now, I'm reading it's 150,000 jobs per month to maintain employment stability. However, today's CNBC article states that the number of jobs needed to show job stability will become 80,000 per month. That's based on aging baby boomers--who are working much longer--and a decline in the population.

We can just forget about the fact that the demographic that the Millenials are as large a population since the Baby Boomers. We can also forget about immigration's effect on adding to the population.

Basically, it's another nice tool from that bottomless toolbox that our Federal Reserve and Treasury Department use to create the illusion that everything's fine. (Think Kevin Bacon at the end of "Animal House" before he gets flattened).

That's right. "Remain calm. All is well." Don't worry about the rise in unemployment from 7.5% to 7.6%. According to financial media, the numbers are not good, but they're not that bad either. No, they're that bad. Unemployment didn't go up because more people are looking for a job and there are fewer disgruntled workers out there. No. Much of it has to do with the budget sequester and more layoffs will be coming down the road because of the sequester. It's the austerity, stupid!

While we watch the game of chicken played out in tapering QE3 and the stock market--taper and the market falls, don't taper and the market rises, bad economic numbers and there's no taper and the market rises, good economic numbers and there might be tapering and the market falls--we need to realize the core economic truth. If there's high unemployment, nobody is spending and companies are not making any profit. If they're not making a profit, there's no need for more inventory, no need for more production and no need to hire more people. That, my friends, is a recession.

Now, why do these companies like Best Buy or any insolvent bank look like their quarterly books are slightly down, flat or even better than expected? Because they can still borrow money given to the banks at exorbitantly low interest rates and loaned at higher rates. That money goes into the company as revenue and it looks like they're surviving. Once things begin to spiral downward, the CEO takes his or her golden parachute along with any other C-level executives who can make the jump and leave the ship as it sinks far faster than the Titanic.

For banks, it's much easier. The accounting rules changed so that banks no longer need to mark-to-market their loans. That would make the banks insolvent. Instead, they mark-to-model--whatever their model might be. With mark-to-model accounting and the Fed pushing cheap money to the banks, it's changing the rules of the game to give an illusion of semi-prosperity.

Meanwhile, the banks are selling their distressed properties to institutional investors at prices reasonable to the banks. If they can't sell distressed, underwater properties, the banks keep them on their books and account for them through the new mark-to-model accounting rules.

The Fed continues to purchase mortgage-backed securities, keep mortgage rates artificially low and hope that the housing market heats up with low foreclosure inventory, high consumer demand and artificially inflated prices. The only problem is that credit remains tight, shadow inventory remains and rising mortgage rates have already stifled the refinance market. As investors shy away from the REO-to-Rental purchases, supply will continue to increase (particularly in judicial states that are delaying eventual foreclosures), consumer demand will soften because of high unemployment (despite artificially low numbers from the new 80,000 job rule the Fed is devising) and home values will eventually decline.

But it's all just one bubble to pop in a series of bubbles that include 15,000+ in an inflated Dow Jones Industrial Average and the bond bubble, which is bound to pop.

The bond market, already in decline, will eventually result in rising interest rates. As we've seen, rising interest rates just happen--and they rise quickly. The refinance market is already drying up with simply a 1% increase in a housing market with still historically low interest rates. The stock market deception will likely decline as the Fed tapers on QE3. The Fed will also start increasing those record low bank rates--0 to 25 bps--because of those artificially low unemployment numbers. At 6.5% unemployment--right, sure--the Fed said it will start to increase rates.

Whatever happens, the public will not know the truth unless the stock market crashes. Only, why would the Fed taper QE3, 4 or 5 if they know the stock market is going to crash? Will the public be aware of a bond market collapse? Does the public know that there is a bond market? Will the public focus on low unemployment even though friends and relatives are out of work?

Or, will we start to see stores like Best Buy with more people in the return lines than the buying lines? Will we start seeing some restaurants abandoned on a Friday and Saturday night and ask, 'How does this place stay open?' Will we begin to wonder why so many homes are up for rent or for sale? Will we question the amount of office space for lease in commercial properties? And, will we begin to ask why everyone in this civilized society can fail except financial institutions?

One of these days, Toto's going to rip open that curtain and we'll see some Fed chair standing behind it. At that point, we'll all need to use our brains, heart and courage to get through the aftermath.

A Global Bankruptcy

"The Illusion Becomes Reality"

-- Gordon Gekko, an investor from the film Wall Street, 1987

Let me start by referencing this article, an interview with Egon Von Greyerz. Von Greyerz is an investment advisor who's banking on gold and hyperinflation: http://bit.ly/117vtgL

I prescribe to the fact that this world is bankrupt and central banks are creating trillions of dollars to create an illusion that we're not in global bankruptcy. Note Gordon Gekko's quote above that the illusion becomes reality. Indeed it's true that we'll determine value even on a painting with one stroke of yellow paint and one stroke of brown paint on it. Wow! Get a few art critics to like it and it becomes valuable. So, we live in this illusion that our money has value to it because it buys food, gas and houses--all rising in price. And, of course, stocks--rising in costs even though consumer spending is flat. The illusion is based on the fact that the Federal Reserve can print trillions of dollars in currency. We don't see it, but the big banks, investment banks, recipients of investor cash and shareholders can see it in their shareholdings and bank accounts.

What do we see? A financial media pushing economic recovery, albeit a slow one. Blogs that are undermining the national media with a logical streetmap and directions toward economic reality.

A slow housing recovery with ridiculously low mortgage rates. They've risen to 4% and that's the end of the refinance wave. If they hit 6%--a record low 15 years ago--will anyone purchase a home? The illusion of the housing recovery lies in the fact that banks are holding onto foreclosed properties. Remember, banks on no longer have a mark-to-market accounting system. They're on a mark-to-(make up a) model accounting system. That means that trained accountants will make up what they think the value is at this time based on future value and whatever other creative methods they use. The bottom line is that home values are rising but only because investors are buying properties and causing low inventory in the housing market. There's no home construction, in fact it fell last month. There is low supply, higher demand with mortgage rates at 4% and increasing and it gives the banks reason for hope that the housing values will be come back on those valueless loans they still have.

However, banks are going to hold on to properties from investors and anyone else until the price is right. Investors plan to turn homes into rentals and wait for values to increase. The only problem is that some investors are already dropping out of the market. http://cbsn.ws/XXuFL3. The next question will be the time factor for those home prices to rise before they drop.

As mortgage rates increase and (investor) buying slows down, we'll likely see one bubble start to pop. Heidi Moore, editor of The Guardian explains it best in this article/video from Yahoo! Finance. http://yhoo.it/12pz4yh. It's not about negativity, positivity, doom or gloom. It's about what makes logical sense. If everyone won the lottery and was ready to spend like it's 2006, I'd disagree with Heidi Moore. But consumer spending fell in April for the first time in nearly a year. http://nyti.ms/17bJQJt Why are people going to spend thousands of dollars to buy a home? Because mortgage rates are at all time lows? Possibly--yes--for awhile--but how many homebuyers are there if no jobs are available?

We'll find out about May's unemployment numbers this Friday, June 7, but even the President said that the numbers can fluctuate. When people stop looking for work, the unemployment percentages go down. The unemployed are not counted but they're certainly not spending money either. Unemployment for April was at 7.5%, but the civilian labor force participation rate was 63.3 percent in April, down 0.3% from the prior month or relatively unchanged. It's a fact that 4.4 million people have not had work for six months or longer. How many of those people have stopped looking for work? With 835,000 discouraged workers not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them and the remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in April who had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities, it means more than 2.3 million people are not included in the unemployment numbers. So, add 2.3 million to the unemployment numbers or people who aren't going to be spending alot of money on items other than necessities--gas, food, clothing and auto repairs. The U-6 number--people without work seeking full-time employment and 'marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons'--is at 13.9%, an increase from the previous month. Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.

Tack on student loan payments and the number of people spending significant sums of their income becomes even fewer than before. And, those numbers also don't represent people hit by the budget sequester--some have been hit by layoffs, some lose money in furloughs and some agencies had Friday, May 24th off with no pay, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Internal Revenue Service, the Environmental Protection Agency and the White House Office of Management and Budget. http://bit.ly/1324C8n Those are facts--not illusion. Should we really expect consumer spending to rise?     

And yet, the stock market is another phenomena. Quantitative Easing, three times now, has moved the market up to a record high 15,000+ on the Dow. When the Fed prints money or looks like they'll continue to print money and purchase bonds and treasuries, investors get excited and the stock market rises. It means Wall Street investors, bankers and publicly traded companies start to make money. The only problem is that the capital is an illusion and none of that illusion trickles down to the workers. Executives get most of this illusion and also have most of the stock options in the companies. The mid-to-low-level workers are just making ends meet, hoping to keep their jobs because no other jobs are available. They may even become victims to layoffs. Layoffs, by the way, don't necessarily translate into large severance packages for these workers.

It's a bit of irony that Japanese brand Panasonic will lay off 5,000 workers from its auto/industrial plants: http://reut.rs/19nIlqN. It was Japan that had a housing crisis and, like the U.S. years later, printed money to prevent an economic collapse. It led to a "lost decade" of economic growth. The U.S. is currently half-way there in its lost decade of economic growth. And, look at Japan today. Granted, they may be coming out of another of their many recessions, but their economy remains unstable--and it's the third largest economy after the U.S. and China. http://nyti.ms/11A6LFS. We're not Japan, granted, but we are going through a time of manipulated rules and interest rates to try and prop up the banking system only to see extraordinarily slow economic growth for five years, still relatively high unemployment and sluggish consumer spending.

But then there's Europe. Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Italy and Spain facing staggering unemployment figures are borrowering money, cutting budgets and still will likely face ongoing economic crises until they denounce the Euro. The Associated Press reported in the economically flailing newspaper, The Washington Post, that "the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that protracted economic weakness in Europe 'could evolve into stagnation with negative implications for the global economy.'"

I would say the U.K., France and Germany will be three countries left standing, but even they face economic traumas. And yet, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke keeps printing the money and will likely continue because U.S. manufacturing showed weakness in May--a four-year low. http://reut.rs/19CnnVa. That's no illusion. That's reality. And yet, because of this statistic, the stock market goes up because it adds hope that the Fed will continue printing money and keep interest rates at all-time lows. That's a reality. That's Wall Street. That's investor mentality in today's world. And, they're the moneymakers--creators of debt--who cheer on recovery and attempt to spark the weak U.S. economic engine into a consumer spending blaze of glory. Good for them.

The only problem with the Fed's illusionary tools--manipulated accounting rules, printing money for investment bankers, low interest rates to push higher debt--is that they can't prop up unemployment, nor can they improve recent consumer spending and manufacturing numbers. Those numbers are the true engine to the U.S. economy. The tools are only good enough to sew together the Emperor's New Clothes and keep the lights on at J.C. Penney's. The question is--for how long?

We can only live in illusion for so long before somebody realizes there's just this old man behind a curtain trying to manipulate something awesome and powerful for the few wealthy and powerful people among us. In reality, there is no money of any value and someday that reality will come to fruition. Be assured, though, that when it does, the U.S. will truly show that it is a great country of people--the masses will band together in self-reliance--in spite of a Federal Government polarized by greed, selfishness and foolish politics. In spite of false hopes, an illusory sense of wealth and inherent bankruptcy, the U.S. will continue to survive.

Boston's Reality and Our News Marathon

Once again, the CNN, MSNBC, Fox ABC, CBS, NBC and a bunch of other news channels riveted us--at least me--last week with coverage of the manhunt for the Boston marathon bombers. I didn't like the sensationalizing of murderers who killed three and injured over a hundred at the Boston Marathon. I didn't like the sensationalizing of Newtown either after the killing of innocent children and adults. But one thing is true--I watched it intensely because these networks do it well. They, indeed keep us riveted to our seat. 

 

I watched it like I watch a movie or a special two-hour television show. We have over-the-top television coverage that makes everything a horrible and grotesque traffic accident that we can't help but look at. It's awful, it didn't happen to us but we just have to watch it.

 

Basically, Watertown, Mass. became an all-day reality show on Friday, with drama in the morning, a mystery during the day and a happy ending on prime time Friday night. The President was excellent in his role of the nation's leader who showed the world what happens if you try domestic terrorism in the United States during the 21st Century. You get alot of television coverage, but you also get caught and killed. In this case, the 19 year-old kid influenced by his older brother's delusional thinking will now have a life in prison. He's already been tried and convicted by a jury of his televisiion watchers.

 

We don't know the details yet of a 19-year old who committed evil and contributed to the murder of three young people and injuries to more than a hundred. The killer at Newtown killed himself. The Aurora, Colorado theater shooter is in trial and the Virginia Tech shooter who killed 32 killed himself. Here's one common theme about all of these killers. They're all mentally ill. But most mentally ill young people are not going to commit violent acts. Most mentally ill people who suffer from bipolar illness, depression, schizophrenia, generalized anxiety, paranoia and panic disorder do not kill other people. So, there's something more than just mental illness. There is evil that exists in this world. Clearly, when someone is directly responsible for another person's death, it's evil.

 

We currently combat mental illness through much-improving medication and therapy. How do we combat evil within individuals? Well, first, we live in a bankrupt world with a relatively few rich and powerful people telling everyone else how we're going to handle the crash of a global economy. How do you think these people will handle it? Probably by helping themselves first and worrying about anyone else later. Therefore, the rich get richer and the poor either get poorer or try to keep their head above water. When there's an economic upheaval and the rich keep getting richer, the future becomes bleak for the poor and middle-class. It makes people vulnerable to evil influences, like committing terrorist activities by well-funded groups--religious and political.

 

In Boston, two young Americanized young men may have been influenced by a well-funded Muslim group in jihad with the United States. Or, it could have been a statement of universal brotherhood, like the Weather Underground, a group of young people building bombs in their basements for political purposes back in the late 1960s and early 1970s. They were a violent counterculture. But, young people in a depressed economy with a dim future want to blame the establishment. They can't accept their lot-in-life that they won't be the over-achieving success that their family always thought they'd be. Instead, they're unsettled losers, as the uncle to the bombing brothers said last week.

 

But, all future unsettled "losers" shouldn't feel bad. The game's been rigged so it's difficult to say you'll be a huge success unless you know someone who likes you and wants you to be a huge success. If you don't know anyone in powerful political positions, you're outta luck. Even "unsettled losers" don't necessarily kill people. Do people without jobs feel stressed out, depressed, self-hatred? It's very possible. Are people without jobs scared for themselves and their family? I would think so. Can they count on their Congress to make the best decisions for them and their country? Not really--see gun control vote on background checks and a budget sequester.

 

So, mentally ill, suicidal young men decide they're going to kill themselves with the evil legacy of bringing others with them--see Virginia Tech and Newtown, Connecticut. Both incidents had about a week of news coverage from the site of the crime. We all remember it. Why decide on evil? 

 

A young, mentally ill man shoots up a movie theater of people in Aurora, Colorado, when he discovers life was not all it's cracked up to be. Another incident with a week of coverage and dubious fame he may never have had anyway. But why choose evil?

 

And two mentally ill young brothers, perhaps vulnerable and susceptible to a good payday, were accepted by a religious group's ideologies and maybe enough money to give them that paycheck. After all, money is always a big motivation for all of us...isn't it? But why choose evil?

 

Finally, 54 Senators are bullied by a large and powerful special interest group to vote against a watered down bill for background checks prior to buying a gun. Most of the people in the country agree to this legislation because of Virginia Tech, Newtown, Connecticut and Aurora, Colorado. The special interest group helps support reelection campaigns by giving money. Why choose evil? 

 

Maybe money is the root of all evils. And, maybe feelings of a bleak future, a meaningless existence or a fear of failure make humanity more inclined to sell their souls.

 

And maybe, it's not about guns, mental illness, domestic or foreign terrorists or 15-minutes of fame. Maybe it's simply a fight in this world against good and evil and, for that, we need to define good and evil. Murdering innocent people and injuring innocent people under the name of political and religious ideologies is evil. Justice, fairness and helping others in the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness is a good thing.

 

It's time to break out the moral compass here in the United States and watch a new reality show. We need to examine good and evil within our society. Just examine it. There's no need for action. And, in the end, justice can and should only be defined by the essence of brave and good natured people. Nature will determine justice. Throw the political and religious ideologies out the window. Forget about the money...it's mostly fake, printed, paper money anyway The world is bankrupt.

 

Ignore the pundits and the numerous opinions about why meaningless events happen each day and why the U.S. Congress is broken. This is simply a battle between good and evil.        

 

Choose good. Expose evil. And vote for the good people who vote with their heads and hearts--not with their wallets. 

Uptight, Scared and Attention Deficit Disorders

As I sat in my comfy chair watching what likely looked to be a great college basketball game Friday night, Kansas vs. Michigan, I thought about the country--a bankrupt result of greed and corruption. But, the world is, indeed, a grand illusion (pardon the Styx reference). Let me explain. Most people in this country suffer from at least one of three flaws but I'll generalize and say they define all of us:

1, We're all uptight. That's right ladies and gentlemen. We are probably the most uptight group of people on the face of the earth. As I watch the game early, referees at the beginning of a game huddle and talk about some foul because there's so much money on the line for this NCAA Basketball corporation. Obviously, the kids who simply graduate won't make enough money to send back to the college. But the athletes! The professional athletes will make enough money to send hundreds of thousands of dollars back to the college. The short and long-term prospects are tremendous! But what does that say about the nature of our educational system? Kids are under extreme pressure from parents to get the best grades possible to get to the best college, which is extraordinarily expensive, are going into the first corporation. The first company to "hire" a college student will provide an education, biased by poltical philosophies from professors that may or may not coincide with student values. And, are these professors able to subdue their egos to give college students their own individual viewpoints if backed up by reasonable argument? Or, is it for the students to answer questions the way professors want them answered? So, besides the fact that we're all a bunch of uptight white and black people--and brown people--we're also failing in our individualism. And, what does it say about our education system in the USA?. Which is why...

2. We're all stupid. If you believe what I saw last Friday night on The Nightly Business Report about "America's Economic Recovery," well...let's just say I saw more bull than a good ol' fashion cattle-call! It came from a stupid chief economist at Chase and one rich stupid ancient relic from the Federal Reserve who helped send us into bankruptcy. And I should be listening to these guys? The dumb guy at Chase--someone titled senior vice president because he was smooching his boss' behind--white or black, man or woman, brown or green or adrogynous--this man was smooching a grown man's behind for position, income and status inside a community! How disgusting! The Larry Tate of the 21st Century. Actually, Larry Tate (from Bewitched) kissed the client's behind. That's understandable. But to kiss behind of a boss one must question how insecure that boss must be to like getting their behind kissed. I mean, Darren never kissed Larry Tate's behind, right? But I digress. The Chase SVP/Chief Economist has the nerve to tell a sparse Nightly Business Report audience on Good Friday that consumers feel wealthy! Why? Because equity in our homes and in the stocks we own make us feel wealthy. Let's hear it for equity and false promises! I'm equity rich and cash poor, so I'm going to go out and buy a new luxury item that I don't really need...right? What a jerk! Anyone that believes and/or understands him is an idiot. And, sorry, I didn't really have the money to get an M.A. from Harvard so I can then kiss behind on Wall Street for the rest of my life. The Chase corporation, like the other Fab Five TBTF Banks, is an ice-cold corporate prison that contributed into sending the world into bankruptcy. Anyone who clearly doesn't see that is blind. The stupid live in their information-laden smartphones thinking they have a million friends who care about them or they're uptight, self-absorbed individuals who don't allow business to wait for another day We work longer and harder than before and yet pay stays the same. We think we have so many Facebook friends who want to hear what we have to say every moment of the day. People wish us all "Happy Birthday" online as if they've been friends with us forever. Meantime, it's a complete diversion from a real life taking place with family and real friends who support you in bad times and share the good times. There's really nothing productive about Facebook. Twitter, maybe, if you can come up with some good quips and someone's reading. The scared lose themselves in watching television--the illusion within a grand illusion. The TV lies (i.e. the guy from Chase and the relic from the Fed on the Nightly Business Report). Once, Nightly Business Report was a boring show that few ever watched. It came from a trusted source of business information--a white, old aristocrat who was boring. But Wall Street's no longer boring and neither is Nightly Business Report. CNBC now produces Nightly Business Report, so whatever NBC Universal wants us to think about business, we'll see it on CNBC and on Nightly Business Report. The stock market is building a paper money monopoly of successful corporations in the short-term while playing a waiting game with Europe. Central banks in Europe, the U.K. and the USA are handing out newly made paper money to anyone who'll take it. But, how long can paper printing--money only seen on a computer screen--substitute for cold-hard cash in a consumer's pocket? Does anybody in this country think about it this way or are they saying the economy is in recovery because the stock market is high, more equity is in our homes and "experts" are telling us that we're in recovery. If we really were in recovery, wouldn't company CEOs with millions of dollars in their future golden parachutes give the word to start hiring workers because everyone's spending? As a CEO, I would say, "My gosh, so many people are spending and feeling wealthy now that I'm confident they'll continue to buy our products. We need more people to help us with this business because we have so much work to do because they're paying us so much money. And they're not shareholders either! They real consumers!" How many CEOs and company presidents are saying that today? Or, are they saying, "We're busy, we're making money and we can't afford any more people because we don't see this thing continuing." Or, are they saying, "I'll answer this Business Confidence Survey in a positive way--to add confidence for the country--but I'm not hiring anyone because this thing just ain't workin'." Does anyone really think in terms of decision-maker actions or do we believe what we hear them say on TV, radio and newspapers? Do we simply accept unemployment below 8% (14.5% for part-timers who'd like to be full time) because that's the number given in a complex survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with an illogical methodology? Then, are we supposed to rely on corporate-owned chief economists paid to present the best picture for consumers and small-business audiences? We're really not watching or listening to the truth. We're working hard at our jobs, getting our kids to school to study and hope no harm comes to them so that someday they, too, can be prosperous. We hope our children will have a good college education, perhaps move on to graduate or work their way up to buying a home and having a family. That's the American Dream, and it's up to the current generation to not forsake that Dream for the children of today. But, wars that cost $6 trillion, bank bailouts, CEO and investor privileges and a false confidence for consumers is causing that Dream to fade. We are seeing a New Normal in favor of the American Dream. And, while this transition takes place, the American Dreamers are trying to find things they enjoy in their lives for escape. They escape to political discourse, as if we have any power in this discussion. We watch sports, movies, television for entertainment and read for either enjoyment or to gain insight into other people's lives. Some of us try to educate ourselves by paying attention to free thinkers without agendas. Some of us play golf, write on social media pages and try to find meaning and happiness in life rather than enjoying the life itself for enjoyment's sake. And, even if it's clear as day and we all know we're in a bankrupt world of computer/paper money illusion, loaded debt and a future world without a material American Dream, we'll accept it. The material world for all of us is evaporating and replaced by the American Dream of material wealth for only a select few. For the working middle class, the American Dream is simply life itself with hopes of winning a Powerball lottery to get rich, of keeping a job to pay for the house, the family and the health-care costs. At the same time, however, we're losing our integrity. The middle-class workers of this world will not and should not speak up for their slice of American materialism. Why? Because...

3. We're scared.  Wouldn't you be? Imagine you're not an executive with a major bank or investor who spouts comments on television that don't make sense. Rather, you have a job that may or may not be there in the future and your wife is in the same boat. That's if you do have a wife. If you're divorced, you probably pay alimony and/or child support, so you're already in financial straits.  People who actually think for themselves are so cautious that they don't need a frggin' loan, Mr. Corporate Banker. They need lower food prices, they need more employment opportunities, more income and more cash on hand to pay for food, gas, clothing and necessary supplies. They need these multi-million dollar politicians pretending to be CEOs to let it trickle down. The current trickle-down effect is a CEO depriving the working class--the ones scared of losing their jobs and working extra hard by doing the job of two or more people without benefit. Nobody needs a loan for anything but an education in this country...and maybe a car...and, of course, a mortgage for a home. Thank goodness we have investors with fake, paper money out there able to give their fake, paper money to the banks so the banks can get underwater houses off their books at a more mild loss and investors can rent the house out until it increases in value. Investors can then sell it for more and keep the difference. Great investment for them. No investment for the working middle class. Oh, by the way, I wouldn't be surprised if the banks and investors created a contract that provided banks with a percentage of monthly payments to make the banks even. It's great! Let's get these stupid middle or lower class consumers out of the real housing market. They still have to buy the more expensive homes that might appreciate a little more in the next 7 to 10 years. But the real money will be made by investors--and possibly the big banks--buying homes low, renting for awhile, and selling them high. The investors need homes not only to make money but because they didn't do their due diligence and were ripped off by banks and Wall Street when they were selling subprime securities. But, since CEOs at investment companies are also the extreme wealthy and affluent, we need to put these "Humpty Dumpty's" back together again. Filthy rich CEOs and Corporate/Wall Street cannot fail in America. Only middle-class and lower-class men and women who lose their jobs can fail. And when there's talk of a bailout to the unemployed, Republicans call it welfare. And then, Congress cuts spending with a budget sequester, it delays and forgets about the hundreds killed in mass shootings due to one financially powerful gun lobby. And, non-income producing jobs like policemen, firemen and teachers are cut in order to preserve Wall Street wealth for investors and large, out-of-control banks tied to investment firms like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Members of Congress, always concerned about reelection, need that special-interest money so they, too, are scared of losing their jobs. They'd rather cater to special interest, the needs of the few and vocal rather than the country as a whole. If anyone tries to "fight City Hall," they are pariahs--personas non-gratis--and thrown under a bus at first chance with a one-way ticket to failure. Oh, and rich people thrown under a bus might fail, too. But probably not because they're rich and they can pay their way out of anything. They're still in the "rich" club. Other rich people might look down on a CEO thrown under a bus. But the CEO can write a book, make television appearances and become a financial "expert" again. He or she can be a top lobbyist for financial interest groups in Washington, D.C. Or, if they can't find their way into the media, they'll be able to teach at one of our country's top colleges. They'll make money there, demand a large six-figure income that the college will accept so that everyone can say the former Federal Reserve Chairman (or some former Treasury Department Assistant Secretary or former Wall Street CEO) teaches at their school. And then, for that distinction, the school endowments can rise, more students will try to get into the school. If costs are higher to enter the very competitive school, there are student loans to get kids that education from a former Federal Reserve Chairman (or some former Treasury Assistant Secretary who helped Congress pass the Troubled Asset Relief Protection (TARP) bailout for banks). He'll explain the reasons why the TARP bailout was crucial to saving the U.S. economy. Will that person say that TARP was a bank bailout to save very large corporate bankers from failure? Will there be a philosophical discussion about failure in corporate America? Perhaps, there might be a classroom discussion on why some businesses can fail and others cannot. Is there a new definition of success if the government determines the successful companies from the failed ones? But if you're going into politics, pick a side because there's no gray--it's Democrat or Republican. The parties no longer have room for moderates to speak for the country as a whole--only for special interests and a small, vocal, wealthy few. For those outside of politics, with business degrees, they will reside in the world of corporate politics and accept the rules of the C-suite and executive lunches without questioning policy. For the future middle class just trying to earn a decent living, they can only speak their mind at home about the rights and wrongs of politics and corporate America. And then, they'll escape because student loans need to be paid back, families need health care, bills and the mortgage need their monthly payments. And, of course, food, clothing, gas and the necessary essentials. Yes, at one time about six years ago, we were able to buy the big-screen TVs, take the nice vacations, make the luxurious home improvements and still have money for essentials. We were on borrowed time and borrowed money-- from home equity loans and a false wealth effect in an overbloated stock market to job security and personal demand from employers. We were entertained with home improvements, wide screen TVs and political and business leaders saying that the good times will never end. Now, we think the good times are coming back and almost real again. That's just one reason we're stupid. But, the scared have a higher priority. They have a family, children, kids that need a college education at the highest cost EVER for colleges because college is a business and they only care about the bottom line, too. College--a business? Shouldn't that be illegal? Education as a business. Learning is a business? That's stupid. But, what's worse, is that student lending volume is nearly $1 trillion and more than 30 percent of those loans are in default. But, today, learning is a business and now, towards the end of the game, five referees have interrupted the momentum to spend 20 minutes figuring out the exact seconds on the time clock. With this much money on the line, it makes us uptight, stupid and scared of making mistakes. Well, don't worry. We need March Madness to take away from the other madness in our lives. The country is in debt and households are having money issues. How much is the average American family in debt? We need to divert attention from this stressful scene. A stressful household stresses out children. Stressed out children don't concentrate as well. Sometimes, they act out in class. Then, parents are too busy because they need their jobs because they're in debt because their mortgage is expensive and they can't buy a cheap house because investors are buying them up or banks are holding onto them because big banks can't fail--only the "mildly" wealthy can fail because they're not getting paper money from the Federal Government and they're not getting millions of dollars to take away on a golden parachute. So, when their kids are stressed out or acting out in class, we call it ADHD and start putting underage kids on drugs--psychiatric drugs. If the families had hundreds of thousands of dollars, they can survive on that and maybe even take the time to concentrate on home life. But how many people make hundreds of thousands of dollars without ambition to move up in the rankings at all costs? How can we trust the judgement of these ambitious people? Who's really calling the shots on our deposits and investments when paper money is thrown around in an artificial stock market? The country looks like this description and yet we're at record highs? Are you kidding me? I mean, when the housing market was red hot and the Dow was at record highs, at least people were temporarily, literally wealthy and everyone was spending--yes, there was artificial prosperity. As I explained, we were buying and confident in our employment. But now? There's prosperity only for the minority group of people making, maybe, $250,000 or more. They're the same people who generate money for a company and corporation. It's very important to be either a money generator or a problem solver in a company--sometimes both because they can't afford both. Most people, artificially or superficially, have either no job, a part-time job, a job paying under $100,000, a job and thousands of dollars in student debt, a good paying job with a husband or wife who have a two-child family (more or less) with a mortgage payment, perhaps one car payment, electricity bills, cell phone bills, TV and Internet bills, taxes, clothing, food bills going up, gas costs up. The man and woman get healthcare for their children through work. They get their salaries funneled into a 401K with all that retirement "wealth." Along with that home equity "wealth." Yeah, when you're a baby-boomer, that money becomes very real. And that paper money will be there for those baby boomers. Forget about the rest of us. But those boomers need to keep their jobs no matter what because without that job, without the healthcare, without the fixed income of Monopoly money every two weeks that declines in value, it's scary to think about being out in the street, with no paper money, no healthcare, no roof for your child or children and the lowest quality of life you've ever experienced. Yes, that's scary and nobody wants to go near that. So, we sit quietly, keep it all in, watch the rich get richer and poor get poorer. And we do nothing. If we don't think about it, maybe we don't get  depressed. We keep positive so our kids only protest a little in our bankrupt nation. Notice how they protest more in European nations? Notice how they bailout every European loser country with paper money and the money isn't going anywhere in productivity? Why? Because European banks can't fail either. Just like Japan's banks couldn't fail. And yet, they're all bankrupt and scared that they'll lose their high-paying jobs and people will see the reality of global bankruptcy. It's not just the poor who can be scared, or the middle class in fear of being poor. Even the rich are scared that they'll be poor. Nobody wants to be poor and if they have to lie, cheat and steal to not be poor--even break the rules to maintain their positions--under the guise that the rich will help the poor, well, why shouldn't we believe them? It's almost like believing that our Facebook friends will take us in if we lose our homes and they'll give us a car if ours break down. No, only family will do that and maybe not even then. And, if you're that close to moving back in with your family? Under their rules? Yeah, you're scared.

The problem is that if the people working in this country are scared, or stupid, or uptight, or all of the above, then we don't see a grand illusion, we don't speak about the grand illusion and we don't want to hear about the grand illusion. But you can read, so read this: We are in global bankruptcy--right now--and the Wizard of Oz hides behind the curtain with his or her numbers, statistics, wordplay and white papers giving an illusion of educated, heartfelt courage and confidence. In fact, there's even an economic recovery. The business programs support it, the politicians support it, the investors support it and the banks, of course, support the illusion. The numbers support it in a record high stock market. And, we're in no place to question that illusion. But I am. So, ignore this and put your head in the sand--if you want to put your head in the sand. If not, look at this world for what it is...look at the cold, hard truth beyond entertainment and false television commentary. Look around at you and your neighbor to determine the country's economic scenario. And ask about how much of the things we have as a country, state and municipality are paid in full.

Why are we uptight? Why are we stupid? Why are we scared? Have we always been that way? No. We were young. Now, we're adults and connected to the global economy because we hope that our children will have a good education and grow to be happy in a prosperous world. In a Peter Pan world, we ignore debt. Rather, we applaud the illusion.

But economics--the global economy--is a real world event. We need to wonder why China is trying to hack Google, banks or financial institutions if not for military secrets. Are we in an economic war and is the world actually bankrupt? Has the U.S. been for sale? Are there any buyers? Is the West buying and the East selling? Or, is the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank buying? Of course, they're making up this money--more of the illusion--by printing it. Well, when I buy something, it's with the money I earn. I don't make money that I didn't earn. That just makes it paper money without any value. The West--U.S. and Europe--have little value in their currency. Some might say no value. But the East is selling, maybe selling their money (also known as lending) for interest. What's their currency looking like? Probably alot like U.S. currency since they get all of our money from the products we purchase. We send jobs to other places like India, Thailand, etc. so that fewer people here can work. We get our products from the East and buy with U.S. money of little value back there.

So, their money has no value, our money has no value and yet, we believe it does, therefore it is. What happens when we no longer believe anymore in the dollar's value? What then? What will motivate humanity to work if not for the almighty valuable dollar? Will man and woman see the realities for himself and herself? Will the illusion shatter when we wake up to the truth that shows us we were living in a 30-year American Dream? The good news is that the American Dream is not over. It's only changing and we'll make it into a new dream. I mean, as a people--can we ever give up illusion? It's a part of American Civilization--World Civilization--and it won't end until creation ends.

Now, seeing a Michigan comeback against Kansas and an easy win against Florida on Sunday, it's also refreshing to know that humans do compete and create magnificent achievements for themselves and for the love of the game itself. The students don't get paid for the win, they don't get promoted for the win and yet, the University of Michigan and the students--not far from the dilapidated, economic hazard called Detroit--earned dignity. The team cameback on Friday night and played at their best on Sunday so that they, the students and the school can call themselves the best in college basketball. And, perhaps, at the end of this tournament, Michigan will be able to say that. We'll see.

We can also learn--as all but one team in the NCAA Tournament learns--even playing at our best doesn't always means success. The pressure of March Madness can make players uptight, scared of losing and sometimes they make stupid plays. But thank goodness for the game's uptight officials for a fair game and making sure the game is played without changing the rules in the middle. They may have taken too much time to review the clock but they had good intentions. They were doing their jobs given the resources they were provided. They made sure Friday night--and in every game--that the games are won and lost in a fair manner. They don't make the rules, they don't make as much money as the coaches and they probably don't make as much money as NCAA executives, but they do enforce the rules to make it a fair game.

Can multinational banks and investment firms and lawmakers say the same thing?

Twinkies vs. Unions: A Struggle for Survival

There was a discussion between the union leader for Hostess workers and Greg Rayburn, CEO of Hostess, right before Rayburn and nine other executives received raises prior to bankruptcy. See "Hostess Twinkies CEO tripled salary to $2.5m while preparing to file bankruptcy." 

 

Here's a transcript of that private discussion between the Union Leader and Greg Rayburn:

 

Union Leader: "There came into Egypt a Pharaoh who did not know."
Greg RaybuNorn: I beg your pardon, is that a proverb?
Union Leader: No, a prophecy. The rich have been doing it to the poor since the beginning of time. The only difference between the Pyramids and the Empire State Building is the Egyptians didn't allow unions. I know what this guy is all about, greed. He don't give a damn about Hostess or the unions. He's in and out for the buck and he don't take prisoners.

 

Actually, that's dialogue from the 1987 film Wall Street, when Carl Fox, played by Martin Sheen, hears Gordon Gekko's plan for Bluestar airlines. In this case, life imitates art. The Hostess Twinkie and Ho-Ho hostage situation is just that--holding these sugar-filled treats hostage from kids and overweight adults who don't need them in the first place.

 

Still, the Twinkie and Ho-Ho are not dead. When another company purchases Hostess and moves the assembly line and recipes overseas for the benefit of cheap labor and more profit, then we will once again see the Twinkie and Ho-Ho. Even if these jobs are not sent overseas, we'll still see the Twinkie and Ho-Ho again with even greater popularity from the current events taking place. The true death we are seeing is in the ongoing decimation of unions.

 

I'm not going to sit here and say unions are right or wrong. But when you have a choice of being overworked and underpaid in poor working conditions and having your job sent overseas--well, I guess it's good to be overworked and underpaid.

 

The NFL Players Union had to disband in favor of bringing their case to court. Perhaps we'll see unions replaced with class-action lawsuits. For teachers, well, you can't send those jobs overseas--at least not yet.  But when jobs are scarce and unions go on strike, executives can give themselves raises before filing bankruptcy. Then, as more jobs go overseas, the union goes down with the workers.

 

If the union does go by way of the Arabian Sea to India or China, then what's left for the overworked and underpaid worker trying to hang on to a job in a malfunctioning economy? To me, any lawsuit against an employer is at risk of losing a job and, therefore, a house and mortgage that turns delinquent. Hiring a lawyer--for a limited time--to go up against the corporate attorneys who will outlast the hopeless employee is a losing proposition for said employee.

 

With the demise of unions--as we have seen in this Hostess debacle--the only way the President can build up the middle class in this country is to enforce extremely rigorous taxes on companies that send jobs overseas for cheap labor and create significant incentives for companies that keep jobs in this country. It's all about greed and it needs to be profitable to run a company in the U.S. Otherwise, the unempowered, union-less worker will have fewer and fewer alternatives. Wages will only remain low unless there are enough jobs for competitive salaries. The middle-class will be pinned against a wall of mortgage, student loan and credit card debt without higher wages. And, the economy will continue a slow recession-like recovery.

 

At this point, the jobs need to be here in the U.S., not overseas, if we want a true recovery in housing, the economy and overall productivity in this country. Here's another way that Washington can make a difference and keep this country from going over a "fiscal cliff." But, will Washington recognize this angle for driving in revenue? Let's wait and see....



We Believe in America

As the stock market heads for an eventual major crash, which I predicted for the past year or more, we can still be comforted in an American Dream that still exists.

Don't get me wrong. The inevitable is coming to fruition. The protesters have finally turned out to say the banking system and Wall Street not only own the government but serve as the major reason why the Federal government could not fix the Financial Crisis of 2008. Despite Ben Bernanke's efforts to throw printed money at the problem, greed kept the economy down--as expected. Basel Three forces banks to hold more capital. Credit remains tight for the people who need it most and the ones who don't need it, don't want it.

The stagnant economy should last for as long as banks dream that home valuations--and commercial real estate values--will rise to the loan levels of that 2006 fantasyland. Because the banks did not learn from their mistakes and made them over and over (the definition of insanity), we wait and watch for a devastating stock market crash that could happen as soon as tomorrow and likely before the end of the year.

All that said, we can take heed in Franklin Delano Roosevelt's illustrious line, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Because we're the kids in America. Now, if we were the kids in Europe--or Greece--that's another story. But we're the kids in America and the Who knew what they were singing when they said that "The Kids Are Alright." America will, indeed, persevere. Here's why.

There is always an American Dream, an individual's opportunity to better oneself simply by living in this country. When the crash happens, people will wake up and realize that money itself has never been the answer to happiness. A new house is not happiness. A new car is not happiness. The real key to happiness is in our health and relationships with others.

Once we realize that without health, we have nothing, and without others, we have nothing. I have one great friend in my life--and a few other good friends, but that's better than no friends and it sustains me. They have been there for me through my addictions just like the United States taxpayers have been there for Wall Street's gambling addiction.

I'll get to how we solve unemployment in a moment, but let's not fool ourselves. Unemployment at 9.1 percent or higher is here to stay. The part-timers who want to be full time are at over 16 percent and here to stay for probably the rest of the decade.

But, if we understand these primary foundations of health and relationships, we can build from there. A house can be part of the American Dream--it is AN American Dream but not THE American Dream. Still, homeownership preservation is necessary to rebuild the economy. If homeowners can by any means stay in their homes and pay their mortgages, then banks should make every effort reasonable to keep those borrowers in their homes. If they cannot pay the mortgage, then buyers can become renters until they become buyers again. If they do not rent their home, then they are destined for apartment living. But, before real buyers and homeowners come out of the woodwork, they need to trust the system. Until then, investors will buy up the houses at foreclosure auctions and the United States will remain stagnant.

The mortgage industry--the housing market--must regain consumer trust through education. Financial literacy is a secondary school lesson waiting to be taught. Only through education and counseling can the housing market regenerate itself into a viable economic idea for the future.

Everyone needs a car at one point in time or another, so the auto market is not going away. That said, everyone needs food and gas, but look at how those commodities have risen? And don't tell me about gas prices falling. Every yutz with ears knows gas prices are still too high.

Clothes, food, gas have not fallen in the long term--they've been flat at best and rising. So, consumers are saving their money for the basics to feed and clothe their children. They try to keep a roof over their heads. Those are the basic building blocks for middle-class families today.

The dwindling middle class either lives in fear of losing their home, their job or all of the above. The jobs overseas are not coming back. The future jobs are not here because CEOs hesitate to hire in a land of uncertainty. But years of uncertainty translate to a double-dip recession and if we are not in one now...well, we are in one now.

While Wall Street plays the house and traders roll the dice, so many families are struggling to make ends meet. While Bernanke's Fed prints Monopoly money for banks to stay in business, college students leave school thousands of dollars in debt. That's why Wall Street investment bankers look down from their office suites to see a re-creation of 1970s protestors--topless women and all.

To me, however, this country is becoming much less divisive. We are realizing at this point that it is time to figure out the bad banks from the good banks and divide out the bad loans from the good loans. The accounting illusion must fade into a new, normal reality. Some banks are going to fail, not for the sake of capitalism but for the sake of America's soul.

At worst, another bank acquires them. At best, private equity acquires the banks at cost if necessary. But public equity has already bailed out enough financial institutions. When the crash eventually happens, this economic maneuver will be the beginning of a new reconstruction period for America. Only with free-flowing credit can we enter into a true green economy with new production and more jobs for all types of workers.

And, when that day comes when America prospers once again--probably about 10 years down the road--we will need to heavily tax the companies that buy cheap labor overseas. At worst, they will need to find cheap labor right here in the U.S., for the struggling unemployed willing to work their way up once again. Because, by that time, the basics will become the perks in society.

At that point, when we fully trade in materialism and ill-gotten gains for a good day's work, well-earned pay and the simple pleasures in living life, can all of us say, "We believe in America."

Robert Michaels

The Fruits of Labor

I wanted to write about Labor Day on Labor Day, but since it was a national holiday to reflect on our labor, I took that time to reflect on the day itself.

This country works harder than any other country in the world. We don't get the social benefits found in other countries, like six weeks vacation, one-year maternity leave and free healthcare. But we do get the fruits of our labor if we choose to pick those fruits?

That means, we sit on Saturdays and Sundays to escape from the work week by watching our big-screen televisions and surround-sound speakers to watch and listen to college and pro football as if we are at the stadiums. Some of us, with enough money to spend, actually go to these huge coliseums to watch the games for real. Others might watch fairly recent movies in their living rooms and, again if money permits, go to movie theaters. Then, some others might visit their local retail establishments for a shopping trip.

Money, however, is the key to enjoying these activities. To get to work, we need money to purchase cars, gas or pay for public transportation. Some more fortunate people can save on those costs by working from home. Whatever the case may be, despite our fruits of labor, consumers have stopped spending. Confidence is down and now it is time to tighten our belts.

More than 16 percent of people are in part-time jobs or frustrated that they do not work in full-time positions. Another large percentage is out of the workforce. And, if you can believe how the Bureau of Labor Statistics determine unemployment, 9.1 percent of the population has no job.

The people who actually labor work today with fewer resources, which can only lead to exhaustion. That said, large corporate CEOs making millions of dollars hold back on spending more because they can. The worker becomes scared of losing their full-time jobs, their healthcare, their 401k retirement accounts partially or fully matched. Companies can play on that fear and outlast the common worker because there are more than enough workers to go around.

The unions, which came into being in the late 1920s for this very reason, are down to 7 percent of all workers. They are going away. Those protests of the late 1920s were repeated by protests of the late 1960s as the economy began to wane again and a large segment of the population reached their college years with a grim future ahead of them.

The masses eventually revolt and another recession with more layoffs could be the tipping point and the straw that breaks the camel's back. Eventually, workers will need to unite because they will discover that $16 million CEO salaries do not "trickle down." They find returns on their investments and decide to hold back on dispensable workers or overwork them to exhaustion. In the end, training others cost employers in time, money and quality. Also, workers determine that there are never guarantees in their jobs so loyalty no longer exists from either side.

The wealth gap is larger than it has ever been in this country, and it is unsustainable. If a double-dip recession is in our future, and I believe we are in the midst of one, then employers may need to cut back again. Bank of America is already talking about a possible 30,000 in layoffs. Yet Brian Moynihan earns millions of dollars as a CEO figurehead. JPMorgan is no longer alive. Neither is Goldman Sachs or Andrew Carnegie. Yet unrelated CEO figureheads run these firms and earn millions more than the person who produces anything of relevance.

It is one thing to say to ourselves that we "work hard and play hard." But when the economy forces us to work hard and sacrifice play to save our money, we begin to wonder why we are working so hard. What happens when there are no longer any "fruits" of labor?

What happens when we are laboring without pride in our labor? What happens when we realize our money can no longer afford a movie for two at $20 a pop or a football game with $60 tickets, $25 parking and $7 a beer? We just hold up in our homes and pay off that television and home audio system.

If it hasn't already, alienated individuals deteriorate any feeling of community in favor of the inexpensive entertainment within the home. We hunker down, poor but entertained, in favor of the abundantly wealthy bank or insurance CEO. And then, when life loses the quality we become accustomed to and we see ourselves at home in the dark because there is nowhere else to go, we get angry for our rights in a free, capitalistic, democratic society.

In our current economic path, in a "jobless recovery," that is when we begin to see the community organize itself for the pursuit of happiness. That day may not be too far away.

I hope everyone had a happy Labor Day and happy labor days ahead. And, may everyone receive the fruits of their labor, rather than rotten apples, in the upcoming year.

Robert Michaels