A friend of mine, Mike Murray, has a 'Situation of the Week' series going on in Facebook, but his answer was too long for the page, so I agreed to let him give his "common sense" answer to how President Obama might proceed in cleaning up the oil in the gulf bay (that's the SOTW).
Here is an explanation of SOTW and his answer.
During a chat on Facebook, BR said to Mike:
"You should post a situation of the week, and people can post common sense ideas regarding the situation. Ready, GO!"
Mike said, "Very good. Here's the first SITUATION OF THE WEEK. A huge hole erupts at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico causing oil to flow out into the entire gulf. How do you plug up the hole and keep the least amount of oil from spilling out? I have my answer....and it's COMMON SENSE."
Here's Mike's answer:
It seems as if this industry problem was first BP's problem--that did not succeed. So, the Federal Government took over, and they can't solve the problem.
However, this is a national crisis and an oil industry problem. Therefore, the President needs to gather ALL heads of the big oil companies and get their brains together to figure this out. That includes Exxon-Mobil (with the whole Valdez problem, they must have some insight on how to fix a problem like this); Conoco Phillips; Shell; and even the company that provides oil to Citgo.
They should all solve this problem together and the one that does solve the problem gets the credit, rewarded by investors who gain confidence in that organization. (They'll all take the credit, of course).
I'm not sure if this tact has been taken but, if not, now's the time to do it as oil continues to spread throughout the Gulf--likely for the next few months. That's my "common sense" answer, and clean up of this mess should be placed on the heads of all oil companies, not just BP, which should be done anyway.
Michael Murray
P.S. I'd also like to thank all the people who wrote their common sense solutions and to Beth Riley for coming up with the idea of SITUATION OF THE WEEK.
Mike's next SOTW will be posted on his Facebook page on Monday. I hope everyone tries to help him fix some of the more complex problems in this world with common sense solutions.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Animal House Response
I had an offline discussion yesterday evening with dgatorfan2579, who commented on my recent posting Will the Real Animal House Please Stand Up? I was rethinking some of things I wrote in the post, but the offline discussion helped clarify points further.
Because I had to revise it, here is the commenter's post and my response to the comments:
dgatorfan2579 said...
I suppose we all discard our personal effects and could go sit by a Theroux-esque pond; would that would be the modern equivalent of "free thinking".
Albert Brooks tried to do it in "Lost in America" but failed, but I never really figured out if he was happy that he failed to achieve the freedom for which he searched.
If you ask me, there are still free thinkers out there, and most of them just think of new ways to manipuate the "debt thinkers" as you call them.
The problem is, as I see it, I don't really have a problem with it. Maybe that's the problem! Or maybe not.
That thinking just cost me $257.89. Oh bother.
dgatorfan2579,
Your comments are well put but were even better put offline for two reasons:
First, you didn't misspell Thoreau. Here is a dime to call your mother, tell her you have no chance of being a Spelling Bee champion. I'm paraphrasing from The Paper Chase of course.
Second, you would have said "brother" instead of "bother."
But I'm not here to bury you but to praise you. Before you think you're Julius Caeser or something, I did think about this entry...or, should I say, rethink this entry.
Here's the paragraph I had the biggest problem with:
"Slaves to debt are not free thinkers. They're idiots who make decisions based on selfish reasons and not on logic ideals for the good of the country. It's not that Obama has bad ideals because he doesn't. But he has to work with groups of people who can't think for themselves and we, frustrated Americans, get to vote for the next loser to make stupid decisions to water down laws that the public wants and feed the banking system for its own wealth and gain."
I think my connection from "free thinker" to "debt slaves" was mistaken and "when I'm wrong I say I'm wrong." (That was Jerry Orbach, the father in Dirty Dancing.)
Free thinkers can be debt slaves, but unless an individual lives within his or her means, they do compromise their status in society. Therefore, we must hold back our free speech lest we get fired or get no money for schooling.
In our offline discussion, you said a student in debt is more of a free thinker because they need to be more mature about their college education, even if that means saying the professor is right when they know he or she is wrong. That was an excellent point which I had to rethink and revise. You're absolutely correct.
Also, many people are not in debt and still want to keep their jobs without the risk of entrepreneurial intent.
Absolutely. I'm one of those people and this blog is perfect for me to relay free speech, as it is for millions of anonymous people. But don't think for a second I'm the same person (or anyone is the same person offline from online). Granted, it depends who I speak with.
Also, I am a slave to debt--only one debt right now--my mortgage. If it was not for that, the thought of becoming an entrepreneur (or, in laymen's terms, a freelancer) would be much more appealing. Does that keep me from free thinking. No sir, it does not. However, it does bar me from certain righteous actions that I might take in the real world.
However, we all need to live somewhere and even rent is a form of debt. A house is, indeed, an investment and once paid off, then we can conceivably have no debt at all (other than health, auto and property insurance, taxes, electricity bills, gas bills, etc.). We can also retain a high credit rating which can be much-needed in this society.
You see, in the real world, young baby boomers protested because they had nothing to lose. In this world, young people are texting, emailing and writing in blogs. And, they have alot to lose.
Which method is more effective?
This method of online email cost you $257.89, probably because you were playing online poker and missed a hand.
Granted, the cost for a trip to Washington, D.C. for a good old-fashioned one million person march and protest may cost more, but the reward might also provide greater internal satisfaction.
RM
P.S.
dgatorfan2579,
Thank you for the comment and the call. Any chance to learn something new or clarify a point is always welcome.
RM
Because I had to revise it, here is the commenter's post and my response to the comments:
dgatorfan2579 said...
I suppose we all discard our personal effects and could go sit by a Theroux-esque pond; would that would be the modern equivalent of "free thinking".
Albert Brooks tried to do it in "Lost in America" but failed, but I never really figured out if he was happy that he failed to achieve the freedom for which he searched.
If you ask me, there are still free thinkers out there, and most of them just think of new ways to manipuate the "debt thinkers" as you call them.
The problem is, as I see it, I don't really have a problem with it. Maybe that's the problem! Or maybe not.
That thinking just cost me $257.89. Oh bother.
dgatorfan2579,
Your comments are well put but were even better put offline for two reasons:
First, you didn't misspell Thoreau. Here is a dime to call your mother, tell her you have no chance of being a Spelling Bee champion. I'm paraphrasing from The Paper Chase of course.
Second, you would have said "brother" instead of "bother."
But I'm not here to bury you but to praise you. Before you think you're Julius Caeser or something, I did think about this entry...or, should I say, rethink this entry.
Here's the paragraph I had the biggest problem with:
"Slaves to debt are not free thinkers. They're idiots who make decisions based on selfish reasons and not on logic ideals for the good of the country. It's not that Obama has bad ideals because he doesn't. But he has to work with groups of people who can't think for themselves and we, frustrated Americans, get to vote for the next loser to make stupid decisions to water down laws that the public wants and feed the banking system for its own wealth and gain."
I think my connection from "free thinker" to "debt slaves" was mistaken and "when I'm wrong I say I'm wrong." (That was Jerry Orbach, the father in Dirty Dancing.)
Free thinkers can be debt slaves, but unless an individual lives within his or her means, they do compromise their status in society. Therefore, we must hold back our free speech lest we get fired or get no money for schooling.
In our offline discussion, you said a student in debt is more of a free thinker because they need to be more mature about their college education, even if that means saying the professor is right when they know he or she is wrong. That was an excellent point which I had to rethink and revise. You're absolutely correct.
Also, many people are not in debt and still want to keep their jobs without the risk of entrepreneurial intent.
Absolutely. I'm one of those people and this blog is perfect for me to relay free speech, as it is for millions of anonymous people. But don't think for a second I'm the same person (or anyone is the same person offline from online). Granted, it depends who I speak with.
Also, I am a slave to debt--only one debt right now--my mortgage. If it was not for that, the thought of becoming an entrepreneur (or, in laymen's terms, a freelancer) would be much more appealing. Does that keep me from free thinking. No sir, it does not. However, it does bar me from certain righteous actions that I might take in the real world.
However, we all need to live somewhere and even rent is a form of debt. A house is, indeed, an investment and once paid off, then we can conceivably have no debt at all (other than health, auto and property insurance, taxes, electricity bills, gas bills, etc.). We can also retain a high credit rating which can be much-needed in this society.
You see, in the real world, young baby boomers protested because they had nothing to lose. In this world, young people are texting, emailing and writing in blogs. And, they have alot to lose.
Which method is more effective?
This method of online email cost you $257.89, probably because you were playing online poker and missed a hand.
Granted, the cost for a trip to Washington, D.C. for a good old-fashioned one million person march and protest may cost more, but the reward might also provide greater internal satisfaction.
RM
P.S.
dgatorfan2579,
Thank you for the comment and the call. Any chance to learn something new or clarify a point is always welcome.
RM
Friday, June 4, 2010
The Birth/Death Model Just Makes It Worse
I think it's interesting that the Dow is not below 10,000 by now. Please reference PPT conspiratorial talk as to the market "holding steady." If this is not below 10,000 during a selloff by the end of the day, this thing is fixed.
The market, in a normal world, would be plummeting. But, I'm onto something else right now. Look at Mish's Global Economic Trend Economic Analysis. He's the one who originally tipped me off to how the Birth/Death model (for companies) is just screwed up. It shows 215,000 jobs were added by more companies. Hah! With Census jobs bringing down real job growth, the birth/death model shows NO JOB GROWTH, but job losses.
Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box - Birth Death Model added 215,000 jobs.
However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this month's employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.
In addition to census hiring, temporary help services employment added 31,000 jobs. temporary help services employment has risen by 362,000 since September 2009.
On the whole, this was a very weak jobs report especially with all the hype coming from various administration officials and economic cheerleaders.
Both the birth/death numbers and temporary help jobs are problematic.
The drop in the unemployment rate will all be taken back by August when the census workers are let go.
This is horrible news for the economy because it means Congress needs to do something "stimulus-wise" for job growth. The problem is...they can't. We just don't have the Federal Government to back us anymore.
That said, we may very well be able to print up more money but, in the long run--no--this is not the right direction.
Sorry...I'm a big Obama fan, but we are not going in the right direction.
Robert Michaels
The market, in a normal world, would be plummeting. But, I'm onto something else right now. Look at Mish's Global Economic Trend Economic Analysis. He's the one who originally tipped me off to how the Birth/Death model (for companies) is just screwed up. It shows 215,000 jobs were added by more companies. Hah! With Census jobs bringing down real job growth, the birth/death model shows NO JOB GROWTH, but job losses.
Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box - Birth Death Model added 215,000 jobs.
However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this month's employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.
In addition to census hiring, temporary help services employment added 31,000 jobs. temporary help services employment has risen by 362,000 since September 2009.
On the whole, this was a very weak jobs report especially with all the hype coming from various administration officials and economic cheerleaders.
Both the birth/death numbers and temporary help jobs are problematic.
The drop in the unemployment rate will all be taken back by August when the census workers are let go.
This is horrible news for the economy because it means Congress needs to do something "stimulus-wise" for job growth. The problem is...they can't. We just don't have the Federal Government to back us anymore.
That said, we may very well be able to print up more money but, in the long run--no--this is not the right direction.
Sorry...I'm a big Obama fan, but we are not going in the right direction.
Robert Michaels
Census Workers Lift Numbers, Not Confidence
This post--Employment-Population Ratio, Part-Time Workers, Unemployed Over 26 Weeks--is from Calculated Risk.
According to the BLS, there are a record 6.763 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.38% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948). It does appear the increases are slowing ...
Although the headline number of 431,000 payroll jobs was large, this was only 20,000 after adjusting for the 411,000 Census 2010 temporary hires. The underlying details were mixed. The positives: the unemployment rated decreased to 9.7%, the number of part time workers (for economic reasons) decreased helping to push down U-6 to 16.6% (from 17.1%), hourly wages increased (slightly), as did the average hours worked.
Negatives include the employment-population rate declining, the few payroll jobs ex-Census, and a record number of workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks. The number of long term unemployed is one of the key stories of this recession, especially since many of them are now losing their unemployment benefits.
As mentioned in my previous blog, the markets are watching this closely and, with more fears on European contagion, the market dropped nearly 200 points and then bounced back up about 20 to 30 points. President Obama had a speech prepared this morning to talk about how employment is picking up, but the truth is that job growth would have been negligible without Census workers.
I'll stick with my 9-12 month prediction for a crash because it will still take time for a gradual decline in the market until it just drops from the trillions of dollars in debt.
As for the unemployment numbers, not a surprise with the Census workers.
As for real estate, a Bloomberg story right now shows 8700 condos on the markets that may be turned into rentals. That could pressure prices downward, creating more losses on these loans. More losses, more balance-sheet writedowns by banks and tighter credit.
As small businesses and consumers that need credit cannot get, and large businesses and affluent Americans that do not need credit don't want it, we are no different than we were before this unemployment report came out. What's the one difference? Some people earned temporary work as Census workers.
According to the BLS, there are a record 6.763 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.38% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948). It does appear the increases are slowing ...
Although the headline number of 431,000 payroll jobs was large, this was only 20,000 after adjusting for the 411,000 Census 2010 temporary hires. The underlying details were mixed. The positives: the unemployment rated decreased to 9.7%, the number of part time workers (for economic reasons) decreased helping to push down U-6 to 16.6% (from 17.1%), hourly wages increased (slightly), as did the average hours worked.
Negatives include the employment-population rate declining, the few payroll jobs ex-Census, and a record number of workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks. The number of long term unemployed is one of the key stories of this recession, especially since many of them are now losing their unemployment benefits.
As mentioned in my previous blog, the markets are watching this closely and, with more fears on European contagion, the market dropped nearly 200 points and then bounced back up about 20 to 30 points. President Obama had a speech prepared this morning to talk about how employment is picking up, but the truth is that job growth would have been negligible without Census workers.
I'll stick with my 9-12 month prediction for a crash because it will still take time for a gradual decline in the market until it just drops from the trillions of dollars in debt.
As for the unemployment numbers, not a surprise with the Census workers.
As for real estate, a Bloomberg story right now shows 8700 condos on the markets that may be turned into rentals. That could pressure prices downward, creating more losses on these loans. More losses, more balance-sheet writedowns by banks and tighter credit.
As small businesses and consumers that need credit cannot get, and large businesses and affluent Americans that do not need credit don't want it, we are no different than we were before this unemployment report came out. What's the one difference? Some people earned temporary work as Census workers.
Market Watches Employment Numbers--Closely
We are reaching the tipping point, folks, on if this "economic recovery" has any legs.
I forecast a stock market crash in 12 to 18 months about three months ago. That means we are nine to 15 months away from paydirt.
This morning, economists expect an increase of nearly 540,000 jobs in May, according to MarketWatch.com. If you read daily clippings from Daily Job Cuts.com, I'm not sure how that is possible. Add on facts that unemployed persons have been out of work for the longest period of time in 70 years, the Wall Street Journal reported, and--anecdotally--a Yale student graduate I know, who graduated cum laude, cannot find a full-time job in their line of work, and there's a real problem out there. A manager at DirectTV who I know was recently laid off.
That said, another website forecasts job gains could reach 730,000-plus. That's just insane.
But, the stock market--and markets around the world--will watch this number closely. Factor in that this report will show Census Bureau hires, but also look at the U-6 number, which has been on a steady rise. The U-6 number, now at 17 percent, includes people working part-time looking for full-time work (like the Yale, cum laude graduate I mentioned). If that number grows higher, this "economic recovery" is no recovery but more smoke-and-mirrors. Then we can watch the stupidity (or manipulation) of the markets.
One thing a strong increase will do--it will strengthen my prediction for a crash 12 to 15 months away. Why? Because if people see unemployment declining, confidence grows and we move into the summer months ready for vacation spending, a little housing activity and, of course, "Happy Days are Here Again" mentality.
Then, we're about nine to 12 months away from European contagion eventually making its way to the U.S. A Fed that will still not see sustained consumer spending just because it cannot sustain itself with the current unemployment figures (summer vacations have already been paid for--mostly) and how much over $13 trillion can the national debt sustain? Also, come Fall, the same problems exist in the housing market, in commercial real estate and people will have to pay off any debt mustered from summer trips.
As the Fed continues to kick the can down the road, expect more foreclosures and vacancies that will require vacancies. So, if we think people started working again in May, good for US. The question is, after Census Bureau hires lose their jobs, what will numbers look then? And who will back us up when these people find trouble paying their debts?
So, the question really becomes, will the market drop today on disturbing unemployment figures or do we continue to "kick the can" on this thing so far that my forecast comes true.
Robert Michaels
I forecast a stock market crash in 12 to 18 months about three months ago. That means we are nine to 15 months away from paydirt.
This morning, economists expect an increase of nearly 540,000 jobs in May, according to MarketWatch.com. If you read daily clippings from Daily Job Cuts.com, I'm not sure how that is possible. Add on facts that unemployed persons have been out of work for the longest period of time in 70 years, the Wall Street Journal reported, and--anecdotally--a Yale student graduate I know, who graduated cum laude, cannot find a full-time job in their line of work, and there's a real problem out there. A manager at DirectTV who I know was recently laid off.
That said, another website forecasts job gains could reach 730,000-plus. That's just insane.
But, the stock market--and markets around the world--will watch this number closely. Factor in that this report will show Census Bureau hires, but also look at the U-6 number, which has been on a steady rise. The U-6 number, now at 17 percent, includes people working part-time looking for full-time work (like the Yale, cum laude graduate I mentioned). If that number grows higher, this "economic recovery" is no recovery but more smoke-and-mirrors. Then we can watch the stupidity (or manipulation) of the markets.
One thing a strong increase will do--it will strengthen my prediction for a crash 12 to 15 months away. Why? Because if people see unemployment declining, confidence grows and we move into the summer months ready for vacation spending, a little housing activity and, of course, "Happy Days are Here Again" mentality.
Then, we're about nine to 12 months away from European contagion eventually making its way to the U.S. A Fed that will still not see sustained consumer spending just because it cannot sustain itself with the current unemployment figures (summer vacations have already been paid for--mostly) and how much over $13 trillion can the national debt sustain? Also, come Fall, the same problems exist in the housing market, in commercial real estate and people will have to pay off any debt mustered from summer trips.
As the Fed continues to kick the can down the road, expect more foreclosures and vacancies that will require vacancies. So, if we think people started working again in May, good for US. The question is, after Census Bureau hires lose their jobs, what will numbers look then? And who will back us up when these people find trouble paying their debts?
So, the question really becomes, will the market drop today on disturbing unemployment figures or do we continue to "kick the can" on this thing so far that my forecast comes true.
Robert Michaels
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Letter to a Friend
Here's a letter I sent to my friend and mentor after he wrote a "rant" about how people expect not to be working or paying their debt in this society. To paraphrase, he said that in his travels, people would give him a blank stare as to the "age-old idea" of working to pay down debt and a mortgage on a house.
I said that with the role models we have today in business and politics--as well as entertainment venues--why should we possibly feel any differently? Why should the unemployed feel less entitled than the CEO paid millions because he is part of the "club." Why should a squeezed-out middle class not feel entitled? I don't personally believe this, but here is my response. Please feel free to comment:
XXX,
Great rant, but what do you expect with a Federal Government bought and sold by corporate America, hence, Wall Street.
The public sees not only executives in private business get WAY MORE money right now than the people who produce (i.e. middle class) but a Fed that not only dipped its toes into the "Moral Hazard" pool but drenched itself in it. Those FED executives also have WAY MORE money than any bright thinkers beneath them in a self-substantiated hierarchy.
I just heard that some "higher-ups" brought down the quality of security analysis in favor of quantity. Therefore, the Federal Government risks the American people's security for its own prosperity. The Federal Government risks the economy by not repealing Glass-Steagall so that it can earn more for themselves.
Geniuses!
Those executives in the Fed also get WAY MORE income than their staff.
Let's not fool ourselves as to why you're seeing those blank stares out there:
1. Yale graduates are not finding jobs with the steep competition out there;
2. DirectTV managers are getting laid off (two anectdotal accounts from different sides of the education spectrum);
3. State and local budget cuts mean more layoffs and a deteriorating education system;
4. Nobody sees this because we're all staring at blackberries or iPhones and texting people (I don't, by the way);
5. An extend/pretend system and market manipulations that attempt to keep big banks, Wall Street and bankers from failing.
Who's really getting a free-ride from the government? Therefore, how can you blame these people for wanting their share of the Socialist pie? They earn less than the saved bank executives we see everyday--all part of the CEO club that won't likely to go hungry.
Sorry if I'm on a soapbox, but I see friends who won't get credit because banks won't lend unless they're top of the line; I see hard-working people now out of work; I see people who are working completely overworked because of fewer resources and smaller margins; and, I see CEOs and/or executives inside and outside of the Federal Government getting WAY MORE than they're worth.
Believe me, it's worse now than ever before and it's this widening income/credit gap that will do more to ruin this country than the people who won't pay their bills. They're screwed already. Blame the Treasury Secretary who feels entitled enough not to pay his taxes and then becomes...what...TREASURY SECRETARY!
Sorry...I had to rant myself.
I said that with the role models we have today in business and politics--as well as entertainment venues--why should we possibly feel any differently? Why should the unemployed feel less entitled than the CEO paid millions because he is part of the "club." Why should a squeezed-out middle class not feel entitled? I don't personally believe this, but here is my response. Please feel free to comment:
XXX,
Great rant, but what do you expect with a Federal Government bought and sold by corporate America, hence, Wall Street.
The public sees not only executives in private business get WAY MORE money right now than the people who produce (i.e. middle class) but a Fed that not only dipped its toes into the "Moral Hazard" pool but drenched itself in it. Those FED executives also have WAY MORE money than any bright thinkers beneath them in a self-substantiated hierarchy.
I just heard that some "higher-ups" brought down the quality of security analysis in favor of quantity. Therefore, the Federal Government risks the American people's security for its own prosperity. The Federal Government risks the economy by not repealing Glass-Steagall so that it can earn more for themselves.
Geniuses!
Those executives in the Fed also get WAY MORE income than their staff.
Let's not fool ourselves as to why you're seeing those blank stares out there:
1. Yale graduates are not finding jobs with the steep competition out there;
2. DirectTV managers are getting laid off (two anectdotal accounts from different sides of the education spectrum);
3. State and local budget cuts mean more layoffs and a deteriorating education system;
4. Nobody sees this because we're all staring at blackberries or iPhones and texting people (I don't, by the way);
5. An extend/pretend system and market manipulations that attempt to keep big banks, Wall Street and bankers from failing.
Who's really getting a free-ride from the government? Therefore, how can you blame these people for wanting their share of the Socialist pie? They earn less than the saved bank executives we see everyday--all part of the CEO club that won't likely to go hungry.
Sorry if I'm on a soapbox, but I see friends who won't get credit because banks won't lend unless they're top of the line; I see hard-working people now out of work; I see people who are working completely overworked because of fewer resources and smaller margins; and, I see CEOs and/or executives inside and outside of the Federal Government getting WAY MORE than they're worth.
Believe me, it's worse now than ever before and it's this widening income/credit gap that will do more to ruin this country than the people who won't pay their bills. They're screwed already. Blame the Treasury Secretary who feels entitled enough not to pay his taxes and then becomes...what...TREASURY SECRETARY!
Sorry...I had to rant myself.
Will the Real Animal House Please Stand Up?
In Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Subprime Goes to College; Students Buried in Debt; Who is to Blame? requires another look from the socioeconomic perspective.
College's once spoiled rich-kids--the ones whose parents pay the entire way while the kids think for themselves and study, party or drop-out, drop-in and/or graduate--has quickly become a thing of the past. I'll be the first to say that although I did graduate from college, I did so as a spoiled rich kid who never had to worry about paying for college.
In full disclosure, I went to college, partied too much, left school in an unfocused "daze of glory" and then returned, wiser-for-the-wear to much more focused behavior, hours in the library reading, better grades and then graduation.
Well, the "Animal House" experience is a thing of the past, and now that colleges know this--as Howard Beale said in "Network"--who's to say what shit they're going to peddle for truth in these "higher" educational institutions.
The whole point of a liberal arts education is to learn how to think for yourself. Sure, a person my age--in his mid-forties--can say to himself (or herself as the case was with someone in a past class) that this is what the professor wants to see so here it is and I'll take my A, thank you.
Is that free thinking? Yes. Because she and some others have the wisdom to see behind the bullshit, learn and get the damn degree for more pay--or, today, just to have a job.
What about the kids who now need to think like professors--sometimes intelligent and nurturing of free thinkers and sometimes egomaniacal failures who posture themselves as experts but never had a real job in their lives (just look at Larry Summers).
The latter knows they can manipulate the system and student minds because the same kids have been under constant pressure to succeed all their lives, and they can't stop now that they're near the finish line with $100,000 of pressure debt on the line.
In a lifetime of A or B-grade necessity, rittalin medication, and no time to lie down and think, thinking for yourself rather than the system gets lost somewhere between Sarah Palin and Elizabeth Warren.
For that reason, we find decisions made that have no logic behind them; we find the egomaniacal "masters of the universe" creating sovereign debt defaults while the U.S. public paying the bill says, "What can we do? I need a job to pay off all the debt I've accumulated or everything I've worked for all my life is worth bupkus."
Come on. This is why our kids don't feel good about themselves...because unless they're part of the chosen few to run this country, they are powerless to any possible change. They can vote for the compromiser every November forced to make decisions based on the campaign contributions given to them.
Slaves to debt are not free thinkers. They're idiots who make decisions based on selfish reasons and not on logic ideals for the good of the country. It's not that Obama has bad ideals because he doesn't. But he has to work with groups of people who can't think for themselves and we, frustrated Americans, get to vote for the next loser to make stupid decisions to water down laws that the public wants and feed the banking system for its own wealth and gain.
It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy that this system will stop. How--we do not know--but we all may be a little wiser for the wear.
One way to look at free thinking wrapped around personal behavior? Take a look at investors. The Tokyo Exchange yesterday went straight up after its Prime Minister left office--stayed that way for much of the day--and dropped to the same number it started at. Why are investors free thinkers? They have money and they don't want to lose it.
As the European contagion continues its spread--now stopped at Spain with France first in line outside of the PIIGS countries--look for very scared investors to run for Treasuries.
While this may be good for the 10-year Treasury Yields, don't be so sure that mortgage rates will decline as favorably as they should because spreads can widen--the same crap that happened about two weeks ago. Spreads widen, yields fall, rates stay about where they are.
What? Give the public any kind of break to refinance their home other than "moral hazards?" Can't do that. Now, the question is, are our professors Elizabeth Warren's out there or are they Larry Summer's type. Will college students even know the difference? Will they care?
In this society, thinking for yourself risks madness, so not many do. But that was one advantage the baby boomers had when they protested during the Civil Rights marches and the Vietnam War marches. The feminist protests and the gay rights parades.
Baby boomers were free thinkers until they had to earn a living and became material in the 1980's with families and, of course, debt slaves. For that reason, they know truth, they did not want to acknowledge it and now many are frustrated with a volatile market, increasing levels of unemployment and overtaxed from limited resources.
So, what are you going to do about it? Oh, right, make the future generation pay for it. That's okay, because they won't protest. They can't. Too busy texting messages to friends while working off their student debt. And what are they actually thinking about? Their future?
Way to go boomers! Toga, toga!
College's once spoiled rich-kids--the ones whose parents pay the entire way while the kids think for themselves and study, party or drop-out, drop-in and/or graduate--has quickly become a thing of the past. I'll be the first to say that although I did graduate from college, I did so as a spoiled rich kid who never had to worry about paying for college.
In full disclosure, I went to college, partied too much, left school in an unfocused "daze of glory" and then returned, wiser-for-the-wear to much more focused behavior, hours in the library reading, better grades and then graduation.
Well, the "Animal House" experience is a thing of the past, and now that colleges know this--as Howard Beale said in "Network"--who's to say what shit they're going to peddle for truth in these "higher" educational institutions.
The whole point of a liberal arts education is to learn how to think for yourself. Sure, a person my age--in his mid-forties--can say to himself (or herself as the case was with someone in a past class) that this is what the professor wants to see so here it is and I'll take my A, thank you.
Is that free thinking? Yes. Because she and some others have the wisdom to see behind the bullshit, learn and get the damn degree for more pay--or, today, just to have a job.
What about the kids who now need to think like professors--sometimes intelligent and nurturing of free thinkers and sometimes egomaniacal failures who posture themselves as experts but never had a real job in their lives (just look at Larry Summers).
The latter knows they can manipulate the system and student minds because the same kids have been under constant pressure to succeed all their lives, and they can't stop now that they're near the finish line with $100,000 of pressure debt on the line.
In a lifetime of A or B-grade necessity, rittalin medication, and no time to lie down and think, thinking for yourself rather than the system gets lost somewhere between Sarah Palin and Elizabeth Warren.
For that reason, we find decisions made that have no logic behind them; we find the egomaniacal "masters of the universe" creating sovereign debt defaults while the U.S. public paying the bill says, "What can we do? I need a job to pay off all the debt I've accumulated or everything I've worked for all my life is worth bupkus."
Come on. This is why our kids don't feel good about themselves...because unless they're part of the chosen few to run this country, they are powerless to any possible change. They can vote for the compromiser every November forced to make decisions based on the campaign contributions given to them.
Slaves to debt are not free thinkers. They're idiots who make decisions based on selfish reasons and not on logic ideals for the good of the country. It's not that Obama has bad ideals because he doesn't. But he has to work with groups of people who can't think for themselves and we, frustrated Americans, get to vote for the next loser to make stupid decisions to water down laws that the public wants and feed the banking system for its own wealth and gain.
It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy that this system will stop. How--we do not know--but we all may be a little wiser for the wear.
One way to look at free thinking wrapped around personal behavior? Take a look at investors. The Tokyo Exchange yesterday went straight up after its Prime Minister left office--stayed that way for much of the day--and dropped to the same number it started at. Why are investors free thinkers? They have money and they don't want to lose it.
As the European contagion continues its spread--now stopped at Spain with France first in line outside of the PIIGS countries--look for very scared investors to run for Treasuries.
While this may be good for the 10-year Treasury Yields, don't be so sure that mortgage rates will decline as favorably as they should because spreads can widen--the same crap that happened about two weeks ago. Spreads widen, yields fall, rates stay about where they are.
What? Give the public any kind of break to refinance their home other than "moral hazards?" Can't do that. Now, the question is, are our professors Elizabeth Warren's out there or are they Larry Summer's type. Will college students even know the difference? Will they care?
In this society, thinking for yourself risks madness, so not many do. But that was one advantage the baby boomers had when they protested during the Civil Rights marches and the Vietnam War marches. The feminist protests and the gay rights parades.
Baby boomers were free thinkers until they had to earn a living and became material in the 1980's with families and, of course, debt slaves. For that reason, they know truth, they did not want to acknowledge it and now many are frustrated with a volatile market, increasing levels of unemployment and overtaxed from limited resources.
So, what are you going to do about it? Oh, right, make the future generation pay for it. That's okay, because they won't protest. They can't. Too busy texting messages to friends while working off their student debt. And what are they actually thinking about? Their future?
Way to go boomers! Toga, toga!
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
A Volatile Summer Ahead
Last summer, people like myself knew it was time to turn off the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock averages for a few months, enjoy June, July and August, and see what happens in the Fall. This year is different.
Unlike last summer, for example, the European contagion will keep things interesting for the next few months. Last summer, mark-to-model accounting showed us banks would stabilize as their numbers came back better than anyone expected and, if the rules weren't changed in the middle of the game, they would have been much worse.
On this Tuesday morning, June 1, we come off a Friday when Fitch downgraded Spain's sovereign debt rating with a report that France could be next.
See Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis and the recent posting on France saying its AAA is at a threat, "France Worries about AAA Rating...French Finance Minister Says 'Keeping AAA Rating a Stretch'"
Add on a poor performance last night in Hong Kong's market and a drop in the European market, and today will likely start off low in the market.
That said, we should realize that an entire weekend went by for the market to prepare for all of these events, including commentary that BP's oil mess won't stop until--possibly--August. So much for deep-water drilling in the next, oh, decade.
Some sources are telling me about war with China if we can't pay our debt. I'm not that pessimistic...and I really hope I'm right. But I still believe that the sudden 1,000 point drop in the market last month was Asia at a momentary crisis point and the Plunge-Protection-Team running in to fix the damage.
The PPT is a conspiratorial government body that many believe manipulate the stock markets. George Stephanopoulous admitted to a PPT in a New York Post article and said in 2000:
"Well, what I just want to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets. You reported just a while ago that the Fed has lowered the overnight interest rates, will put about $80 billion into the market. In addition, the SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has relaxed the rules for companies on whether or not they can buy back their stock in case they start to fall.
"And dozens of companies, including big companies like Intel and Cisco have announced that they would buy back their stock if necessary. Third, there will be some trading curbs in effect today. If the market drops by about 1,100 points, they will probably suspend trading for a while. And perhaps most important, there’s been--the Fed in 1989 created what is called a plunge protection team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges, and there – they have been meeting informally so far, and they have kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem."- George Stephanopoulous, 9/17/00).
From a New York Post article, this post was added to a current blog site "Degrees of Freedom."
In any case, the contagion is spreading and even if the market were to bounce back today, I forecast a losing week. May, in fact, was the worst month for Dow Jones in the past 70 years, and the pattern is now beginning to form toward a downward crash, much like 1932 following the 1929 crash (see my last blog entry, "Dow Nadir Will Fall Below 2000").
Watch the markets this week and pay special attention to that U-6 unemployment number because, if that number increases, nothing's in recovery.
Until then, just a reminder, I'm not an investment advisor (but I play one on T.V.) I couldn't resist that line.
Unlike last summer, for example, the European contagion will keep things interesting for the next few months. Last summer, mark-to-model accounting showed us banks would stabilize as their numbers came back better than anyone expected and, if the rules weren't changed in the middle of the game, they would have been much worse.
On this Tuesday morning, June 1, we come off a Friday when Fitch downgraded Spain's sovereign debt rating with a report that France could be next.
See Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis and the recent posting on France saying its AAA is at a threat, "France Worries about AAA Rating...French Finance Minister Says 'Keeping AAA Rating a Stretch'"
Add on a poor performance last night in Hong Kong's market and a drop in the European market, and today will likely start off low in the market.
That said, we should realize that an entire weekend went by for the market to prepare for all of these events, including commentary that BP's oil mess won't stop until--possibly--August. So much for deep-water drilling in the next, oh, decade.
Some sources are telling me about war with China if we can't pay our debt. I'm not that pessimistic...and I really hope I'm right. But I still believe that the sudden 1,000 point drop in the market last month was Asia at a momentary crisis point and the Plunge-Protection-Team running in to fix the damage.
The PPT is a conspiratorial government body that many believe manipulate the stock markets. George Stephanopoulous admitted to a PPT in a New York Post article and said in 2000:
"Well, what I just want to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets. You reported just a while ago that the Fed has lowered the overnight interest rates, will put about $80 billion into the market. In addition, the SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has relaxed the rules for companies on whether or not they can buy back their stock in case they start to fall.
"And dozens of companies, including big companies like Intel and Cisco have announced that they would buy back their stock if necessary. Third, there will be some trading curbs in effect today. If the market drops by about 1,100 points, they will probably suspend trading for a while. And perhaps most important, there’s been--the Fed in 1989 created what is called a plunge protection team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges, and there – they have been meeting informally so far, and they have kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem."- George Stephanopoulous, 9/17/00).
From a New York Post article, this post was added to a current blog site "Degrees of Freedom."
In any case, the contagion is spreading and even if the market were to bounce back today, I forecast a losing week. May, in fact, was the worst month for Dow Jones in the past 70 years, and the pattern is now beginning to form toward a downward crash, much like 1932 following the 1929 crash (see my last blog entry, "Dow Nadir Will Fall Below 2000").
Watch the markets this week and pay special attention to that U-6 unemployment number because, if that number increases, nothing's in recovery.
Until then, just a reminder, I'm not an investment advisor (but I play one on T.V.) I couldn't resist that line.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)