Census Workers Lift Numbers, Not Confidence

This post--Employment-Population Ratio, Part-Time Workers, Unemployed Over 26 Weeks--is from Calculated Risk.

According to the BLS, there are a record 6.763 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.38% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948). It does appear the increases are slowing ...

Although the headline number of 431,000 payroll jobs was large, this was only 20,000 after adjusting for the 411,000 Census 2010 temporary hires. The underlying details were mixed. The positives: the unemployment rated decreased to 9.7%, the number of part time workers (for economic reasons) decreased helping to push down U-6 to 16.6% (from 17.1%), hourly wages increased (slightly), as did the average hours worked.

Negatives include the employment-population rate declining, the few payroll jobs ex-Census, and a record number of workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks. The number of long term unemployed is one of the key stories of this recession, especially since many of them are now losing their unemployment benefits.

As mentioned in my previous blog, the markets are watching this closely and, with more fears on European contagion, the market dropped nearly 200 points and then bounced back up about 20 to 30 points. President Obama had a speech prepared this morning to talk about how employment is picking up, but the truth is that job growth would have been negligible without Census workers.

I'll stick with my 9-12 month prediction for a crash because it will still take time for a gradual decline in the market until it just drops from the trillions of dollars in debt.

As for the unemployment numbers, not a surprise with the Census workers.

As for real estate, a Bloomberg story right now shows 8700 condos on the markets that may be turned into rentals. That could pressure prices downward, creating more losses on these loans. More losses, more balance-sheet writedowns by banks and tighter credit.

As small businesses and consumers that need credit cannot get, and large businesses and affluent Americans that do not need credit don't want it, we are no different than we were before this unemployment report came out. What's the one difference? Some people earned temporary work as Census workers.