We Believe in America

As the stock market heads for an eventual major crash, which I predicted for the past year or more, we can still be comforted in an American Dream that still exists.

Don't get me wrong. The inevitable is coming to fruition. The protesters have finally turned out to say the banking system and Wall Street not only own the government but serve as the major reason why the Federal government could not fix the Financial Crisis of 2008. Despite Ben Bernanke's efforts to throw printed money at the problem, greed kept the economy down--as expected. Basel Three forces banks to hold more capital. Credit remains tight for the people who need it most and the ones who don't need it, don't want it.

The stagnant economy should last for as long as banks dream that home valuations--and commercial real estate values--will rise to the loan levels of that 2006 fantasyland. Because the banks did not learn from their mistakes and made them over and over (the definition of insanity), we wait and watch for a devastating stock market crash that could happen as soon as tomorrow and likely before the end of the year.

All that said, we can take heed in Franklin Delano Roosevelt's illustrious line, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Because we're the kids in America. Now, if we were the kids in Europe--or Greece--that's another story. But we're the kids in America and the Who knew what they were singing when they said that "The Kids Are Alright." America will, indeed, persevere. Here's why.

There is always an American Dream, an individual's opportunity to better oneself simply by living in this country. When the crash happens, people will wake up and realize that money itself has never been the answer to happiness. A new house is not happiness. A new car is not happiness. The real key to happiness is in our health and relationships with others.

Once we realize that without health, we have nothing, and without others, we have nothing. I have one great friend in my life--and a few other good friends, but that's better than no friends and it sustains me. They have been there for me through my addictions just like the United States taxpayers have been there for Wall Street's gambling addiction.

I'll get to how we solve unemployment in a moment, but let's not fool ourselves. Unemployment at 9.1 percent or higher is here to stay. The part-timers who want to be full time are at over 16 percent and here to stay for probably the rest of the decade.

But, if we understand these primary foundations of health and relationships, we can build from there. A house can be part of the American Dream--it is AN American Dream but not THE American Dream. Still, homeownership preservation is necessary to rebuild the economy. If homeowners can by any means stay in their homes and pay their mortgages, then banks should make every effort reasonable to keep those borrowers in their homes. If they cannot pay the mortgage, then buyers can become renters until they become buyers again. If they do not rent their home, then they are destined for apartment living. But, before real buyers and homeowners come out of the woodwork, they need to trust the system. Until then, investors will buy up the houses at foreclosure auctions and the United States will remain stagnant.

The mortgage industry--the housing market--must regain consumer trust through education. Financial literacy is a secondary school lesson waiting to be taught. Only through education and counseling can the housing market regenerate itself into a viable economic idea for the future.

Everyone needs a car at one point in time or another, so the auto market is not going away. That said, everyone needs food and gas, but look at how those commodities have risen? And don't tell me about gas prices falling. Every yutz with ears knows gas prices are still too high.

Clothes, food, gas have not fallen in the long term--they've been flat at best and rising. So, consumers are saving their money for the basics to feed and clothe their children. They try to keep a roof over their heads. Those are the basic building blocks for middle-class families today.

The dwindling middle class either lives in fear of losing their home, their job or all of the above. The jobs overseas are not coming back. The future jobs are not here because CEOs hesitate to hire in a land of uncertainty. But years of uncertainty translate to a double-dip recession and if we are not in one now...well, we are in one now.

While Wall Street plays the house and traders roll the dice, so many families are struggling to make ends meet. While Bernanke's Fed prints Monopoly money for banks to stay in business, college students leave school thousands of dollars in debt. That's why Wall Street investment bankers look down from their office suites to see a re-creation of 1970s protestors--topless women and all.

To me, however, this country is becoming much less divisive. We are realizing at this point that it is time to figure out the bad banks from the good banks and divide out the bad loans from the good loans. The accounting illusion must fade into a new, normal reality. Some banks are going to fail, not for the sake of capitalism but for the sake of America's soul.

At worst, another bank acquires them. At best, private equity acquires the banks at cost if necessary. But public equity has already bailed out enough financial institutions. When the crash eventually happens, this economic maneuver will be the beginning of a new reconstruction period for America. Only with free-flowing credit can we enter into a true green economy with new production and more jobs for all types of workers.

And, when that day comes when America prospers once again--probably about 10 years down the road--we will need to heavily tax the companies that buy cheap labor overseas. At worst, they will need to find cheap labor right here in the U.S., for the struggling unemployed willing to work their way up once again. Because, by that time, the basics will become the perks in society.

At that point, when we fully trade in materialism and ill-gotten gains for a good day's work, well-earned pay and the simple pleasures in living life, can all of us say, "We believe in America."

Robert Michaels

The Fruits of Labor

I wanted to write about Labor Day on Labor Day, but since it was a national holiday to reflect on our labor, I took that time to reflect on the day itself.

This country works harder than any other country in the world. We don't get the social benefits found in other countries, like six weeks vacation, one-year maternity leave and free healthcare. But we do get the fruits of our labor if we choose to pick those fruits?

That means, we sit on Saturdays and Sundays to escape from the work week by watching our big-screen televisions and surround-sound speakers to watch and listen to college and pro football as if we are at the stadiums. Some of us, with enough money to spend, actually go to these huge coliseums to watch the games for real. Others might watch fairly recent movies in their living rooms and, again if money permits, go to movie theaters. Then, some others might visit their local retail establishments for a shopping trip.

Money, however, is the key to enjoying these activities. To get to work, we need money to purchase cars, gas or pay for public transportation. Some more fortunate people can save on those costs by working from home. Whatever the case may be, despite our fruits of labor, consumers have stopped spending. Confidence is down and now it is time to tighten our belts.

More than 16 percent of people are in part-time jobs or frustrated that they do not work in full-time positions. Another large percentage is out of the workforce. And, if you can believe how the Bureau of Labor Statistics determine unemployment, 9.1 percent of the population has no job.

The people who actually labor work today with fewer resources, which can only lead to exhaustion. That said, large corporate CEOs making millions of dollars hold back on spending more because they can. The worker becomes scared of losing their full-time jobs, their healthcare, their 401k retirement accounts partially or fully matched. Companies can play on that fear and outlast the common worker because there are more than enough workers to go around.

The unions, which came into being in the late 1920s for this very reason, are down to 7 percent of all workers. They are going away. Those protests of the late 1920s were repeated by protests of the late 1960s as the economy began to wane again and a large segment of the population reached their college years with a grim future ahead of them.

The masses eventually revolt and another recession with more layoffs could be the tipping point and the straw that breaks the camel's back. Eventually, workers will need to unite because they will discover that $16 million CEO salaries do not "trickle down." They find returns on their investments and decide to hold back on dispensable workers or overwork them to exhaustion. In the end, training others cost employers in time, money and quality. Also, workers determine that there are never guarantees in their jobs so loyalty no longer exists from either side.

The wealth gap is larger than it has ever been in this country, and it is unsustainable. If a double-dip recession is in our future, and I believe we are in the midst of one, then employers may need to cut back again. Bank of America is already talking about a possible 30,000 in layoffs. Yet Brian Moynihan earns millions of dollars as a CEO figurehead. JPMorgan is no longer alive. Neither is Goldman Sachs or Andrew Carnegie. Yet unrelated CEO figureheads run these firms and earn millions more than the person who produces anything of relevance.

It is one thing to say to ourselves that we "work hard and play hard." But when the economy forces us to work hard and sacrifice play to save our money, we begin to wonder why we are working so hard. What happens when there are no longer any "fruits" of labor?

What happens when we are laboring without pride in our labor? What happens when we realize our money can no longer afford a movie for two at $20 a pop or a football game with $60 tickets, $25 parking and $7 a beer? We just hold up in our homes and pay off that television and home audio system.

If it hasn't already, alienated individuals deteriorate any feeling of community in favor of the inexpensive entertainment within the home. We hunker down, poor but entertained, in favor of the abundantly wealthy bank or insurance CEO. And then, when life loses the quality we become accustomed to and we see ourselves at home in the dark because there is nowhere else to go, we get angry for our rights in a free, capitalistic, democratic society.

In our current economic path, in a "jobless recovery," that is when we begin to see the community organize itself for the pursuit of happiness. That day may not be too far away.

I hope everyone had a happy Labor Day and happy labor days ahead. And, may everyone receive the fruits of their labor, rather than rotten apples, in the upcoming year.

Robert Michaels

Facts are Facts...We're in a Recession

Do not fool yourselves by the powers that be...we're in a recession.

Back in 1929, the country started into a couple of recessions that would later be named The Great Depression. Consider this to be The Great Depression 2 because another recession is here. Only this time, our debt accounts for 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product...so it's worse.

Also, some will say that World War II got us out of The Great Depression. That was because the U.S. manufactured weapons and ammunition. We manufactured the steel for those products. We manufactured tanks and other items to fight the war. These days, war does not improve the economy because we fight wars through Boeing, Northrup Grumman and government-defense contractors. It's only profitable for the few, not the many.

But, I digress. Let's begin with the fact that we are in another recession. I reference Mike "Mish" Shedlock in his blog Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. In "US in Recession Right Here, Right Now," Shedlock explains how the consumer price index shows a true picture of the economy and that we are, indeed, in a recession.

Then, a couple economists say the U.S. is either in a recession or heading to a depression in this CNBC article, "Global Recession Likely, Depression Possible: Economist." Roger Nightingale, economist and strategist at RDN Associates, is no slouch and he explains that a recession is 65 percent to 75 percent certain for next spring.

Let's also not forget the stock market plummeted this month when Europe appeared in crisis. Sometimes appearances can be deceiving, but not in this case. Europe is in crisis and my sources say France should have its credit downgraded, not the U.S. Meanwhile, Germany is in panic that they will have to bail out the entire European Union. But it won't be necessary because the Euro will eventually collapse.

I spoke with someone from Portugal who told me that the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) will simply form their own currency and leave the EU, meaning it will collapse. U.S. banks are tied to these countries, particularly Greece, and that doesn't bode well for the U.S. It means more Euro crisis, more stock market declines.

I predicted the stock market would crash, but if Ben Bernanke thinks QE3 will keep it up, then that just might happen. But it can't happen forever and it may just make 2012 plain scary. Those Mayans may just know what they're talking about.

Today, the stock market discovered consumer confidence plummeted and it simply remained steady. Low consumer confidence means no spending and 70 percent of our GDP goes out the window. Just what are the traders thinking? They're not. The computers are running the show.

Karl Denninger talks about the stock market fiasco in Real People Say 'Screw You' to the Market.

So, let's review. Consumer confidence is way down, economists say we are in recession or heading there and the virtual stock market waits for more Quantitative Easing to juice up the stock market.

Eventually, someone has to pay for all this. Guess who it's going to be.

Robert Michaels

Games Congress Plays

If anyone thinks for a second politics is not a game, then they are simply fooling themselves (or, they are simply naive to the entire process). As a Washington, D.C. journalist, I have seen obvious legislation that favor both parties turned into long delays and battling to the last minute for no reason whatsoever but the Republicans and Democrats are two polarized parties that cannot agree on anything.

Now, throw in the Tea Party, something akin to the Nazi Party in 1930s economically stressed Germany. The Tea Party are neither stubborn nor mean--they're just plain crazy. They make Mitch McConnell look like a nice guy. If McConnell thinks they're crazy, imagine what a moderate must think.

But, in politics, Republicans need to play nice with the Tea Party and they did so to the point of painting themselves into a debt-ceiling corner that makes them look foolish. Now what? When we turn to McConnell for his "wisdom," known by most as common sense, then this country has a serious problem. So now, I have to explain how this will all play out in D.C. political theater:

There will be no agreement on the budget and President Obama will get that 14th Amendment going at the last minute--maybe Monday night or Tuesday morning--and raise the debt ceiling. Then, the President can take credit for saving the country and the economic world. Good for him. He played it well because holding the debt ceiling hostage was so stupid that it's easy to make stupid people doing stupid things look stupid. End of story on the debt ceiling.

Now, onto the budget. If this budget does not have $4 trillion in cuts (which is low) it is a complete failure. I would accept $3.7 trillion, but it's still too low. Then, bring in another group of morons who painted themselves into a corner: Standard & Poor's Ratings Agency.

First of all, why do any of the ratings agencies--S&P, Moody's, Fitch--get any "credit" (don't pardon the pun) at all after the subprime debacle. Get rid of these losers for new ratings agencies that have no water under the bridge--no history of getting paid off for giving mortgage securities better ratings than they deserved. How is it that any respectable rating agency does not cut the U.S. debt rating with cuts below $4 trillion? Again, a political game played for the future of the United States of America.

Alas, a watered-down budget cut will keep the U.S. rating at its solid AAA because nobody is going to cut the U.S. debt rating until it's clear that the U.S. cannot repay its debt--somewhere between the bombing of Beijing and some small town in Kansas.

By the way, Japan holds the second largest amount of U.S. debt next to China. Don't you think they can use the money after more tsunamis and quakes than in the film '2012'?

So, the summer of 2011 ends with Greece on the verge of default, Congress taking a nice long vacation without a budget cut decision yet and the debt ceiling increased. Woo-hoo! That's the Congressional version of success. If I was that successful in my lifetime, I'd be lying on a street corner in the middle of winter asking for a dime because I'd think it was worth more than a quarter. Do I sound angry? You bet.

But who isn't angry at Washington, D.C. these days? They look like complete imbeciles--more so than usual. But, wait until Greece actually defaults, Portugal goes down, Italy falls and Germany and France are left holding the bag. Wait until residential housing pulls down the country further and we find that some of these commercial real estate trophy properties are losing value.

Wait until we realize consumers have no interest in spending for the holiday season. Then, wait until the value of the dollar continues its free-fall into October.

Then, we'll see Quantitative Easing 3 to whatever...or maybe we'll finally realize Wall Street addicts are controlling this game all along with their gambling addiction. The pusher-man, Ben Bernanke, the ultimate enabler, continues to feed their addiction until they--along with the U.S.--eventually crash.

Then we realize, our money is worth nothing. Perhaps we'll avoid that disaster in favor of a good-old fashion stock market crash from Wall Street bubbles.

I'll take the devil I know over the devil I don't know if we're going to keep on playing silly games.

Also, thinking of crashes, I'd like to take a moment to thank all of my readers who sent cards and letters wishing me the best in my recovery from sobriety. I'm happy to say I'm back up to a quart of bourbon a day as well as a toke or two of my favorite substance.

Thank you for your thoughts and prayers.

All the best,

Robert Michaels

A Morality Play

In Heaven...

Benjamin Franklin: I say, Tom. Isn't it remarkable how that Republican Party holds the debt ceiling hostage for the sake of abundantly wealthy aristocrats like we used to be on Earth

Thomas Jefferson: Speak for yourself, Benjamin. Those bloody 'Tea Partiers' have no clue what they're doing and the rest of the Republicans try to placate them. We didn't want to pay taxes without representation. These cheap bastards don't want to pay taxes at all.

BF: Yes, well, I suppose you have a point there. But the rich are paying more than their share of taxes, aren't they?

TJ: Not really, Ben. The high-power corporations high large law firms that find loopholes in the tax code and actually pay very little in taxes. They are also more astute at finding deductions for their own personal taxes. Once again, high-powered accountants can find tax loopholes.

BF: Well said, Tom, as always. But why are they holding the bloody debt ceiling vote hostage? Don't they realize interest rates will rise sky high, destroying the economy?

TJ: Perhaps. But there are two sides to this argument. If interest rates run sky high, the U.S. may never be able to pay its debt. However, prices on everything from housing to commercial real estate could drop precipitously. That means investors with some cash or savings could purchase something cheap at high rates and later refinance when rates lower. It might be better for the consumer. For banks, however, it will not be good and lending would completely freeze up, more than it is now.

BF: I see. So, even if prices were low, banks don't get their low percentage money they've become addicted to from that pusher man--Ben Bernanke.

TJ: Well, you know Ben, we never said anything about the Federal Reserve in our Constitution. And I never thought of anything so stupid as an organization within Washington, D.C. that prints money and answers to Wall Street when I wrote the Declaration of Independence.

BF: Fools. Bureaucratic fools.

TJ: That's from Raiders of the Lost Ark. Just saw it on Blu-Ray.

Enter John Hancock.

TJ: Hancock. You seem well today.

John Hancock: Not in the least, Jefferson. I get the feeling that the U.S. will not raise the debt ceiling because those TP Republicans can't get themselves together and admit they were wrong for holding the debt ceiling hostage during budget talks.

BF: They'll never be able to repay China anyway. So what's the point?

TJ: When it becomes official...when U.S. ratings lower from AAA status...interest rates on the debt increase and China can officially say they want their money back.

JH: But China needs the U.S. as much as the U.S. needs China's investment...and investment from other foreign countries.

TJ: The problem is that the pusher man--Ben Bernanke--won't be able to print up any more money to funnel to large banks to make them look solvent. Therefore, even the large businesses will need to layoff people. More unemployment, fewer consumers spend, nothing for China to import to the U.S. and, yet, the U.S. can import food, coal and other commodities to China.

BF: If I were China, I'd ask for my money back. Or start a war to get it back.

JH: War...with Europe insolvent and the U.S. insolvent....and China wanting the money they loaned to the U.S., wouldn't the U.S. be on the wrong side of that war?

BF: Maybe the U.S. will blame it on Al Qaeda or some Chinese terrorist group.

TJ: Let's not jump the gun.

JH: I love that phrase. Reminds me of the old Revolutionary War--Shot Heard 'Round the World--days of yesteryear.

TJ: Not that Sarah Palin would know a damn thing about it. But that's for another day. Let's hope cooler heads prevail on this and they can raise the debt ceiling, try to balance the budget and let the stock market crash in the normal way with a major bubbles.

BF: I do say I am looking forward to speaking to Larry Summers one day about how he masterminded this method of derivatives and structured investment vehicles, what do they call it? Financial engineering? To make people feel wealthy and prosperous when in reality they are only wealthy on paper and lose it when the bubble pops. It's sheer genius.

JH: He certainly knew how to run a good scam.

BF: And, he realized, unlike others, that women were not good at math or science. He had the balls to say it as Harvard's president.

JH: He is quite a genius. And, borrowing money--basically printing it--while keeping interest rates abnormally low does make one feel healthy, wealthy and wise...right Ben.

BF: Indeed it does.

TJ: Will you fools quit acting like the aristocratic baboons you actually are. It's exactly this type of borrowing that has led to the crisis the U.S. and Europe are in right now. No entity can borrow and borrow without eventually paying the piper. And, as for speaking to Larry Summers, I don't think he's coming up here...if you know what I mean.

BF: The poor bastard.

JH: Fat bastard.

BF: What's that?

JH: I'm going to open up some Fat Bastard. That sort of information disturbs me and I could use a glass of wine. And what more appropriate wine than Fat Bastard.

TJ: Let me see if I can speak the boss about the country we invented...and the world itself...not blowing itself up from a World War III. Know what I mean?

BF: Not sure if I do, Thomas?

TJ: That's because you still suffer from major electroshock therapy. Let me spell it out. When nobody has any money and a country heading toward a recession wants money they're owed, that country will get very angry. Then, the country that owes money...and other countries without money, will get very angry. Soon, the result is inevitable. War. Nobody wants it, but we may have it.

BF: Strange how humans often obtain things they do not want.

JH: This is no time for Star Trek lines. Tom, if there's a chance to save Earth you have to take it.

TJ: Okay, I'll just be stepping out of The Twilight Zone here and get a meeting together with the big guy. We'll need cooler heads prevailing in more than just a debt ceiling crisis. But will they?

BF: Thank you for this talk, Tom. You really cleared my head...about the country and the shape of things to come.

TJ: Well if I had your outlook, my feelings would be numb. I'd always think that everything was so fine...Everything was fine, fine, fine.

JH: Please quit quoting the Chicago "Dialogue: Part I" song. You, Tom, of all people, quoting someone else's work is particularly surprising.

TJ: These are desperate times, Hancock. I suggest you 'sign on' to our appeal for a safe landing to the debt ceiling crisis and a healthy financial system down the road.

JH: I'll drink to that.

TJ, BF and JH: We can make it happen, we can make it happen, yeah...we can make it happen, we can make happen, yeah, we can make it happen, we can make it hap--

THE END

In honor of the National Football League acting like adults and ending the lockout for everyone's best interest, here are my All-Time Great Washington Redskins list--in no particular order. As for those Republican babies in Congress holding the debt ceiling hostage, good luck getting reelected.

My Personal List of All-Time Great Washington Redskins:

1. Sonny Jurgensen
2. Charley Taylor
3. Larry Brown
4. John Riggins
5. Joe Theismann
6. Art Monk
7. Rick ‘Doc’ Walker
8. Bobby Mitchell
9. Darrell Green
10. Russ Grimm
11. Slingin’ Sammy Baugh
12. Ricky Sanders
13. Chris Hanburger
14. Diron Talbert
15. Ron McDole
16. Tim Johnson
17. Eric Williams
18. Dexter Manley
19. Charles Mann
20. Joe Jacoby
21. R.C. Thielemann
22. Bill Brundidge
23. Len Hauss
24. Jeff Bostic
25. Mark Moseley
26. Ken Houston
27. Sam Huff
28. Bobby Beathard (Hon.)
29. Joe Gibbs (Hon.)
30. Frank Herzog (Hon.)
31. Jack Kent Cooke (Hon.)
32. Brig Owens
33. ‘Speedy’ Duncan
34. Mike Nelms
35. Doug Williams (’87 season)
36. Mark Rypien (’91 season)
37. Billy Kilmer
38. Don Warren
39. Buddy Hardeman
40. Tony Green
41. Wilbur Marshall
42. Ken Harvey
43. Timmy Smith
44. Mike Bass
45. Clint Didier
46. Vince Lombardi (Hon.)
47. Ray Flaherty (Hon.)
48. London Fletcher
49. Gregg Williams
50. Jim Lachey
51. Monte Coleman
52. Matt Millen
53. Neal Olkewicz
54. Harold McLinton
55. Frank Grant
56. Mike Thomas
57. Chris Lohmiller
58. Brad Dusek
59. Dave Butz
60. Tony Peters
61. Mike Bragg
62. Brian Mitchell
63. Manny Sistrunk
64. Jack Pardee
65. Jeris White
66. Alvin Garrett
67. Charlie Brown
68. Eric Byner
69. Lemar Parrish
70. Joe Lavender
71. Verlon Biggs
72. Chris Cooley
73. Nick Giaquinto
74. Jerry Smith
75. Larry Smith
76. Roy Jefferson
77. Gerald Riggs
78. Ricky Thompson
79. John McDaniel
80. Clinton Portis
81. Santana Moss
82. Sean Taylor
83. George Allen (Hon.)
84. Gary Clark
85. Darryl Grant
86. LeVar Arrington
87. Chris Samuels
88. Danny Buggs
89. Gregg Williams
90. Mark Murphy
91. Barry Williams
92. Rich Milot
93. Jumpy Geathers
94. Randy Jones
95. Tre Johnson
96. Ricky Williams
97. Fred Dean
98. Fred Stokes
99. Ryan Clark
100. Antonio Pierce

Enjoy the 2011 NFL Season!

Our Profit Prophet Has Arrived

Friends,

I have returned from the depth of a personal hell, exorcising my inner demons in a small cave near Colombia and I return to you with a spiritual message--there is a Higher Power. I know, I felt it there as I spoke with the natives and broke bread with them. It was then I realized that this higher power would never let us all go completely bankrupt.

In fact, Financial Armageddon is upon us. And, it is peaceful. We won't feel it. It will be like Robert Redford in the "The Twilight Zone" when he played Mr. Death and touched the old lady's hand and she was dead but didn't even realize it.

Yes, it will not be easy but as we speak, a Profit Prophet has been sent to us and he--yes ladies, it is a he--will deliver us out from this evil economic crash brought on in the last 30 years with the idea that "Trickle-Down Economics" was somehow prosperous. Well, it was for about 30 years--for educated people from decent homes who were able to afford a decent education.

But now, we see the credit card tapped out. The money never trickled. The booms-and-busts were brought on by Republican presidents and, unfortunately, Democratic presidents as well.

But, we have hit the ceiling (get it). And now, the Republicans act like children painting themselves into a corner. The older children (hint--Democrats) are trying to play it tough but will they break when the Dow starts falling as it is today? Will they say they will go with the plan to give Obama the ability to raise the debt ceiling and move further with their silly games?

Okay. Seriously. Here we are. There's no turning back--only forward. Lives have been lost, families are out on the street, which has Carmageddon written all over them. It's no longer funny when men, women and children lead poverty stricken lives and we pretend not to see them with the hopes that we can get through five or10 more prosperous years. The same path of "Trickle-Down" politics will simply doom this country. That's a fact. The change is now.

As a journalist, I see now the machinations behind this change. It will not come fast and the market may even drop further before it does, but a plan is moving in place as we speak to correct the problem in the economy. Trust your higher power that this is taking place.

In Washington, D.C., the sun is shining today with a new hope for a revival toward economic prosperity. Trust me, trust your brothers and sisters around you that the times will get better and there will be a much more satisfying and prosperous socio-economic world. We look for a road to neighborhoods where all neighbors unite for their communities; we look for a world where prejudice no longer exists and man is helping man.

And, by the way, I'm not talking about hands, touching hands, singing kumbaya and selling Coca-Cola as we saw in that cheesy 1970s commercial. I'm talking about connecting with others, face-to-face and communicating our ideas through each other. We do it now through social media--let's do it in the real world--for as long as we have it left.

If I sound like a preacher on his soapbox, I am, because I've found my higher power. Have you?

Stop Drinking the Kool-Aid

The following blog post was written after to my departure from the Betty Ford Health Center and prior to my excursion into Mexico.

If you are an adult and reading this, then you should know better than to drink Kool-Aid

Kool-Aid is a colored sugar that flavors water. In fact, Kool-Aid is a sweetener. It makes something bland taste better, and it becomes a magical drink for little kids. I know it was for me. For adults, it's unhealthy even though it still tastes good and if I refuse to think about the consequences of its effects, I might just like drinking. But I want to think about how the effects of this sugar, with food-coloring added, ruins my health in favor of water or even Gatorade.

Now, why do we say, "Stop Drinking the Kool-Aid" as a metaphor? Is it because Jim Jones placed poison within Kool-Aid during the late 1970s to kill a bunch of cult followers who could not think for themselves? Yes, that's one reason. The other reason is because it is a metaphor for not wanting to face up to the truth.

I have been trying to write about financial truth for the past couple of years, but I'm going on hiatus. I can't drink the Kool-Aid anymore--I'm too old--and I have to leave Washington, D.C. for awhile to see the world for myself. I'm going to cross the border into Mexico.

Some Wall Street salesmen who would, of course, call me "negative," stand up on Bloomberg Television to tell us the stock market is not overpriced, unemployment is improving because 65,000 people have more McDonald's jobs and the economy in general is slowly improving.

Recently in New York City, I realized that "You Can't Fight City Hall." It is true, and I give up.

Like economist David Rosenberg said a few months ago, it's not that I don't see a huge stock market crash within the next year or two but I'm just tired of waiting for it.

The Treasury Department (Timmay) pressured the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) into changing mark-to-market rules so that banks do not have to write-off or write-down billions of dollars of residential and commercial real estate loans, not to mention consumer and corporate debt, so that they can receive billions of dollars in taxpayers money and hike up fees on taxpayers if they do not make their credit card payments each month.

They receive that money from Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who first tells 60 Minutes that the Fed can print money and then, in his second interview, tells the viewing public--taxpayers--that he does not print up money. He said the subprime market was contained.

CEOs of major Wall Street investment banks lied to shareholders weeks, even days, before their values plummeted because they swindled investors by mixing subprime loans and prime loans and paid a rating agency to say they were all AAA loans. The Securities and Exchange Commission finds Goldman Sachs guilty of fraud and they pay a fine in taxpayer money.

The Federal Reserve pushes cheap debt to banks--taxpayer money--to large banks and they invest it into the stock market. Traders make money, Wall Street CEOs make money--our taxpayer money--and we look at the stock market as the President says the economy is improving.

My next door neighbor needs to sell his home and others are barely surviving on low-paying part-time jobs or no jobs at all. And, it's not like they are stupid or incapable of working. But, when a company owner is uncertain about an economy fueled by printed money, they are not going to hire anyone full time. So now, we have more than 16 percent of part-time workers who are frustrated that they are cannot get a full-time job. We also have people who dropped out of the labor force. We have people who are getting first-time unemployment, and it is increasing.

We have people like myself living in a home and not making any payments on my mortgage because laws prevent mortgage companies from foreclosing on me. As I move to Europe and lock up my home, it will sit, prices will remain stagnant and they will eventually fall once the bank forecloses on all the "modified" homes in the neighborhood.

When the neighborhood falls, residential prices drop and so does commercial real estate. And, when we fall into a double-dip recession, we might finally say, "A-ha, so it was a depression. That's what it felt like."

Of course it's a depression. We never made it out of the 1970s because after Jim Jones passed around the Kool-Aid in Guyana, the Federal Reserve borrowed in the name of USA and added debt to this country that lowered unemployed and boosted the stock market until it crashed in 1987. S&Ls borrowed to build commercial real estate until it was so overbuilt that it caused a recession and those materialistic 1980s were done.

Reagan said, "Just Say No" and everything in life would be great. Really? I don't think so. It was more like make as much money as possible and everything would be great. A reunion concert meant rock stars sold out, just like the baby boomers thought money can buy love.

With Bill Clinton, we thought we might have that liberal who would bring us back to thinking of ourselves as human beings rather than walking moneymakers serving the ruling class, or people who had alot of money thanks to multi-national corporations moving overseas.

But, no. Clinton--with Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan and all of those Republicans in Democrat clothing--founded financial engineering that churned capital into computers, personal computers, and start-up Internet companies that quickly went bust.

Then, in response to the President's blow-job in the White House, Congress repealed the Glass-Steagall Act and then, after a questionable election, we got George W. Bush and deregulation.

By then, baby boomers and their spoiled, self-centered kids brought the US into the age of narcissism, adding reality television to mix. At this point, we literally gave $1 million to the biggest a-hole on an island. We continue to reward bad behavior in sports, media and politics because it is really only about big-screen televisions, 24/7 access to information and lost in a sea of subtlety that we cannot even sit in quiet and think for ourselves.

So now, after I drank the Kool-Aid one last time with Barack Obama and really thought he was change I could count on, we continue to feed the Wall Street beast and listen to early stories about how Osama Bin Laden used his wife as a human shield before getting shot because it's exactly what we want to hear. Only, it's so good that they can't keep up the propaganda.

I grew up in a world where I thought propaganda started and ended with the Pravda and when they tore down the wall, I thought propaganda was gone. But, of course, spin substituted for propaganda and now it runs rampant in the U.S.

Propaganda, generally lies presented to the U.S. to make the nation looks better, is alive and well and stronger than ever. And, I'm tired of fighting it. I want to enjoy what is left of my life.

So, as I write this and finish my fifth of scotch, I will finish off my joint and take a temporary break from the hell I've been living in for the past few years trying to push the truth in the financial markets.

Go ahead, America, and listen to the salesmen on Wall Street's trading floors, and the well-dressed salesmen and saleswomen in Washington, D.C. because they sell what most of us in this boring, mediocre society crave for--fantasy.

We do not live in reality. Our agenda is greed and fear. Greed for anything and fear that we might not get it for ourselves. We are spoiled, self-centered children who need to express our views to everyone on the planet because nobody in our workplace wants to hear it--or read it. The million-dollar, or billion-dollar CEO doesn't want to hear it.

The President doesn't want to hear it. Congress doesn't want to hear it. Even consumer groups do not want to necessarily hear what 16 percent and more of the people want to say--let's help the people live in decent housing, get decent healthcare and take the pressure off the USA.

Frankly, I'm tired of feeling like Atlas, lifting the world in my little, insignificant job, so I can help produce a profit for my billion-dollar CEO. I'm tired of seeing other people pay their mortgages while I sit and pay nothing to live in my home. I'm tired of seeing banks lose paperwork because they only care about profit. And, I'm tired of U.S./multinational companies move outside the country and hire cheap labor so that they can make a profit at our expense.

We're paying for this. We pay more money in gas so speculators can make money; we pay so the U.S. can go into trillions of dollars in debt to give the illusion that we are in an economic recovery.

We earn our little salaries--those of us who have jobs--in little cubicles or offices as our supervisors monitor the mundane, daily work we have been doing for the past years, trying to build a 401K and hold onto health benefits. It's a rat race and, frankly, it's no fun.

So, I'm going to Mexico--leaving urban U.S. for awhile--because I want to see firsthand how real people live. You know, the people not in virtual, 3-D world, zoned out on reality television shows so that they can feel better about ourselves.

To all my readers, Hasta la vista, baby.

When Will It All Hit the Fan?

From the title of the post, you either think this will be about the NFL lockout. Well, it's not. It's about "extend and pretend," "kick-the-can" and the next bubble burst.

But, before I get to that, some followers of my blog ask me if I'm still doing it? I'll admit, in the past four months I have been in hibernation and stepped out briefly to realize there will be six more weeks of winter.

I'm stepping out today, President's Day, because I'm not working today, which allows me time to write a frivolous blog entry (even though I do need to keep working on my book as well), and I just need to put things in perspective for myself and others. I don't get paid for this and I'm working on a book, so this blog is not my top priority. That said, a few things to point out--most importantly, we're on borrowed time.

First, we have a divisive Congress that can't agree on the best place to get their shirts cleaned much less diving into a trillion-plus deficit and slashing social security, medicare and defense. Don't expect any budget slashing this year, a likely threat to shutdown the Federal government indefinitely, which will not happen because Repulicans don't want a repeat of 1995, and don't expect the Federal Reserve to pull back on Quantitative Easing measures, part deux.

Make no mistake, this economy is run by the Federal Reserve, for the Federal Reserve, and in Ben Bernanke we need to trust. All I can say is, if we have to trust a guy who says the Fed prints money in one 60 Minutes interview with Scott Pelley and then says it does not print money in another interview with the same Scott Pelley on the same program only a couple of years later, then we might want to question the character of people we trust in this world.

GDP is up, we're not in recession, because the Federal Reserve provides the capital to produce inventories and general growth. Here's the problem--unemployment shows no signs of abating. That means either more consumer debt, less consumer spending or both.

Housing prices continue to fall in most areas, meaning banks remain insolvent.

Commercial real estate values are stable but, depending on particular market economies, housing foreclosures and shadow inventories, as well as Borders' recent bankruptcy, that sector of the economy has a long way toward recovery. Office will not likely expand until unemployment declines, retail will not recover until consumers begin to really spend again and housing regains its footing, only business travelers are staying at hotels on a normalized basis and apartment properties are showing momentum.

Still, refinance activity of $1 trillion in CRE within the next two years remains a challenge without all the financial markets--banks, commercial mortgage-backed securities and pension funds running at full steam.

State and local governments continue to slash budgets, going after teacher pension funds in Wisconsin, with other states likely to follow. Peaceful protests in Wisconsin could sprawl throughout the country this year. But, either way, those budgets need cutting and that means higher unemployment numbers if private business does not higher.

The stock market value, now in the low 12,000 range, is just ridiculous. Remember the Internet bubble and the "New Economy?" Remember 14,000-plus when the economy overheated on housing-wealth from investment banker to borrower? Now, 12,000-plus on companies profiting from layoffs, budget cuts, debt reductions and no hiring. No extra employees, no extra benefit costs, no extra overhead and telecommuting becomes more popular for consultants and part-time workers. So, are these companies really valued properly? How long will it last?

Outside of the U.S., Egyptian protests overturned a dictator who kept peace between Egypt and Israel and kept trade open with its partners. But, with any global economic upheaval, the people become unhappy with the current regime and want change. Facebook helped spur it on and now the middle east has a series of protests for democracy. Greater uncertainty in the Middle East does not favor markets, democracy or no democracy.

Eastern Asia, China, India and other developing nations are beginning to see inflation rearing its ugly head, which would raise interest rates and increase import costs for other nations, including the United States. Meanwhile, a falling dollar could improve U.S. exports, if the U.S. exported anything. Mostly, they outsource manufacturing for cheaper labor and higher profits.

Once again, there is no solution to the job market-problem in this country.

In Europe, Portugal appears likely to be the next "bail-out nation," following Greece, Ireland and soon-to-be Spain with its 20 percent-plus unemployment level. When does the Euro face collapse? Or, will Germany fall in propping up the Euro and bailing out its fellow EU countries?

CRE worsens in the United Kingdom and, as Paul McCartney once sang, "the pound is falling."

If the U.S. economy was running on its own with all this taking place in the world, I would say we have a long recovery, but we will recover. It still runs on an engine of Fed dollars filtering through capital markets and it will be just a matter of time until the music stops. Who will have a chair to sit on and who will be left standing at the end of this charade.

There will be more bank failures as the country, and the world, continues to deleverage. And, there will be losers out there. My bet for the losers includes the middle class and poor, who were never given a fair chance for opportunity in this recession. The federal government's call on this extraordinarily deep recession was to favor the affluent, the too-big-to-fail banks, Wall Street and special interests with deep pockets. The money, from their way of thinking, I suppose, would "trickle-down" to middle-class and poor folk in terms of jobs and increasing values.

Think again. Trickle-down economics has not worked for the past 30 years, and it will not work this time. All it does is increase deficits, make wealthy people wealthier and poor people poorer.

It also creates booms--and busts. The only question now is--when does the next bust take place? I continue to go with Fall 2011, but I would not be surprised if the big crash, which puts us into a double-dip recession, occurs in November or December 2012, just after the next Presidential election. The only question is whether Bernanke, Tim Geithner and crew can hold off the economic pressures from outside the country as well as those creeping up domestically.

Don't wait too soon. We'll likely know by this summer.

Robert Michaels